Moxham Family's Organic Milk Now Comes as Gelato
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As part of the divestment of its brands, Fonterra has promised its farmer shareholders a capital return of NZ$2/share, adding up to approximately $3.2 billion.
Shareholders vote on the sale this month, with the sale set to come into force in 2026 pending regulatory approval from the Overseas Investment Office.
In its latest report, How the butter gets spread, ASB describes the prospective sale as "chunky, even for a behemoth such as Fonterra".
"Fonterra's cash returns from last season (dividends + milk price payouts) totalled $16.2 billion. A conservative estimate of $15bn this season plus a $3.2bn capital return would increase total cash returns for the 2025/26 season by ~20% for no material change in activity," the report says.
ASB argues that the capital return could inject approximately $4.5 billion into the economy. That flowthrough, the bank says, would likely be concentrated to industries like manufacturing, retail and accommodation, and rental and real estate.
"We estimate that 40-60% of the capital returns to dairy farmers would be saved or used to pay down debt," the report adds. "A high savings propensity constrains the immediate flow to the broader economy but can build stronger medium-term resilience for rural businesses."
Read More:
- Make the right decision, Peters urges Fonterra farmers
- Divestment means Fonterra can focus on its strengths
- Editorial: A new era for two co-ops
The bank says while the co-operative's greater focus on producing commodities will leverage it's key strengths, it could potentially leave Fonterra more vulnerable to a global shift towards trade protectionism.
"This broadly reflects the structure of demand (concentrated in a few buyers) and weakening comparative advantage. A commodity focus makes Fonterra more dependent on a few customers.
"Although these contracts are lucrative, high concentration in only a few multinationals (MNE) leaves NZ dairy more exposed to any pivots made by these MNEs, including resultant actions from broader geographic fragmentation. To date, NZ exporters have not seen a material dent in incomes by way of a tariff-related hit, but we will be watching for further signs."
The bank adds that a commodity-focused approach has the potential to weaken the New Zealand dairy industry's competitive advantage.
"This is because our exports become mostly intermediate inputs in the mass production of overseas finished goods. When the advantages of using a kiwi product are less impactful to the end product, this weakens comparative advantage."
"Of the few NZ growth tailwinds we do have, the Fonterra capital return would be greatly received, giving a few key sectors good support."
ASB says that while dairy prices have reduced slightly, that reduction remains consistent with its price forecast.
"We retain our $9.75 per kgMS Fonterra payout forecast for the 2025/26 season which remains a lucrative price point that incentivises production."
