It says the population rise is driven by stronger ewe performance in most regions.
The national ewe lambing percentage increased to 131.1%, up 3.7 percentage points on last year.
The improved lambing outcome more than offset earlier expectations of fewer lambs tailed, following a 1.9% reduction in the number of breeding ewes.
All regions reported higher lambing percentages except the northern North Island, where dry summer-autumn conditions affected feed levels and ewe condition.
Kate Acland, chair of B+LNZ, says the lift in the national lamb crop is a positive sign following two challenging seasons.
“Despite tough weather conditions in parts of the country, farmers have achieved a strong lambing performance, which is a great result.
“More saleable lambs than previously forecast will provide a good boost to farm revenue, particularly with global demand for lamb holding firm.
“However, the overall number of lambs processed in the 2025–26 season is forecast to be around 17.07 million head, about the same as in 2024-25, when the number processed was down just over a million head. So, supply is likely to remain relatively tight.”
Part of the reason processing is forecast to be the same is farmers are anticipating some of the lambs born to be retained to rebuild ewe numbers in parts of the country that were affected by drought and poor weather in recent seasons.
Farmers indicated strong first-quarter processing intentions, with more lambs expected to be sent to processors between October and December across most regions.
Global lamb supply remains constrained, supported by an expected 5.8% reduction in Australian export lamb availability and continued low New Zealand supply.
This tightness, combined with sustained demand for sheepmeat, continues to keep New Zealand farmgate prices at historically high levels.
“The sector remains cautiously optimistic,” says Acland.
