Strong production, tested demand send milk prices crashing
Strong global milk production and rebalancing of demand among key buyers has delivered one of the biggest drops in whole milk powder prices in recent years.
The co-op has lifted its 2024/25 forecast Farmgate Milk Price midpoint to $9/kgMS and unveiled a FY25 earnings guidance of 40-60 cents per share.
It has also announced a total dividend of 55c/share for the 2024 financial year.
Chief executive Miles Hurrell says the lift in this season’s forecast milk price follows further recent strengthening in Global Dairy Trade prices and constrained milk supply in key producing regions.
“I’m pleased to be announcing an increase in this season’s forecast Farmgate Milk Price, which I’m sure will be welcome news for farmers, particularly when combined with the 55 cent total dividend for FY24 also announced by the co-op today,” says Hurrell.
Fonterra’s new forecast Farmgate Milk Price range for the 2024/25 season is $8.25-$9.75/kgMS, with the co-op continuing to maintain the wide range due to the relatively early stage of the season.
“We’ve also announced today our forecast earnings for FY25 of 40-60 cents per share,” says Hurrell.
“The forecast earnings range reflects an expectation we will maintain strong margins in all three of our sales channels, while also investing in the Co-op’s IT & digital transformation and incurring higher tax expenses,” he says.
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Fonterra also announced that, after several years of strong earnings performance, the co-op exhausted its tax losses in FY24 and will now be paying tax.
Chief Financial Officer Andrew Murray says that “as a result of this change, when we declare a dividend from FY25 and beyond, imputation credits will now be available to be attached to our dividend.
“To enable all shareholders to receive the imputation credits, we are changing how we treat supply backed shares for tax purposes which means that more tax will be paid by Fonterra.
“While this does not impact the operating performance of Fonterra, it will reduce our reported earnings per share in future years, as Fonterra will have paid the tax on the cash to be distributed,” says Murray.
