Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
As with headline confidence, this is the strongest reading on this measure since mid-2017.
Not surprisingly, dairy farmers continue to be the most optimistic of all the sector groupings, with close to 7 in 10 now expecting an improved performance from their own operation across the next 12 months.
Sheep and beef farmers were also markedly more upbeat about the prospects for their own businesses, with 3 in 10 expecting improved performance and only 1 in 10 now expecting performance to worsen.
Rabobank's general manager for country banking, Bruce Weir says horticulturists bucked the upwards trend, recording a lower reading on this measure.
"Growers are still broadly positive about the year ahead for their own operations - with more expecting their own farm business performance to improve than those expecting it to worsen - but they are less optimistic than in September and are now the most pessimistic of all the sector groupings, he said.
"Horticulturalists haven't seen the same recent price revival as their counterparts in the pastoral sectors, and lingering concerns over farm input prices and the outlook for overseas markets appear to be holding sentiment back."
The survey found farmers' investment intentions increased with the net reading on this measure lifting to +18% from +2% previously.
Dairy farmers recorded the strongest investment intentions, increasing to a net reading of +39% (from +21% previously) while investment intentions among sheep and beef farmers also rose (net reading of +2% from -17% last quarter). Horticulturalists' investment intentions were marginally weaker falling to a net reading of -5% (-3% previously).
