Horticulture exports hit $8.4B, surge toward $10B by 2029

Speaking at the Primary Industries NZ Summit in Christchurch last week, Associate Agriculture Minister Nicola Grigg noted that it was a brilliant result for a sector "that had come through a dark time".

"The figures are phenomenal, and few economies can match numbers like that," she says.

"Our farmers, growers and processors deserve a big pat on the back."

The recovery by apple and pear growers, especially in Hawke's Bay and Gisborne, is worth noting. These areas faced huge losses from floods and cyclones but stabilised over the past year - seeing higher yield and higher profitability and recording higher export volumes.

HortNZ chief executive Kate Scott says that this latest forecast in the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) outlook for the sector reinforces the growing importance of horticulture to the national economy. She says the horticulture sector continues to go from strength to strength and adds that growers, exporters and supply chain partners deserve huge credit for their resilience and commitment to delivering world-class products from NZ.

"However, it is important to remember that greater export revenue for the horticulture sector does not necessarily translate into greater profitability for growers because they are facing increased costs of production, so we need to ensure that value is also returned to growers. The ability to grow the sector into the future is directly related to the profitability of horticulture businesses," she says.

Scott says this reinforces the need for policy settings that enable the sector to grow nutritious, affordable fruit and vegetables.

The huge jump in hort exports is led by a billion-dollar leap in the value of kiwifruit exports which soared from $2.8 billion a year ago to $3.8 billion this year - a massive 36% increase - and it doesn't stop there with kiwifruit exports predicted to be worth $4.3 billion by 2029.

Also playing a significant hand in the rise and rise of horticulture is the contribution of apples and pears. They broke the billion-dollar marke for the first time at $1.1 billion - up 18%, with further rises predicted through to 2029. Fresh and processed vegetables and 'other products', which include avocados, cherries, and blueberries also had a good year.

Forecast revenue for avocado exports is expected to jump 192% to $108 million, cherries 35% to $124m and squash 7% to $60 million.

Grigg says the sector is poised for impressive growth. She says the 19% growth rate for 2025 is phenomenal - the fastest of any agricultural sector - reflecting the dedication and resilience of our growers and exporters.

Grigg says looking ahead, the sector's continued hard work is expected to drive that even higher reflecting the vital role horticulture plays in NZ's economy and global trade.

"These strong results are thanks to the dedication and hard work of our fruit and veggie growers - and the Government is fully committed to backing their ongoing success."

Meat, Wool Show Promise

Meat and wool earnings for the year to the end of June are expected to hit $12.3 billion - almost a billion more than they were a year ago and modest increases are expected over the coming four years.

MPI's report says tighter global beef and lamb production is lifting prices and offsetting some of the challenges being encountered in the Chinese market.

It adds that the higher prices NZ is obtaining for beef and lamb, along with the weaker NZD against the USD is strengthening export prices and farm gate returns.

The report predicts that the average farmgate profit before tax for all classes of sheep and beef farms for 2024/25 will be $106,000, an 89% increase on last year. There is a suggestion in the report that this could lead to farmers increasing expenditure on fertiliser and repairs and maintenance as they catch up on deferred expenditure.

MIA chief executive Sirma Karapeeva says the improved forecast highlights the sector's importance to the NZ economy. She says they are expecting an uplift in key export prices, driven by reduced global production of beef and lamb and continued strong international demand for red meat.

Karapeeva says this year there's been growth in value to most of our major markets, notably demand for our beef and sheepmeat in the US, a significant increase in sheepmeat volumes to the European Union, and a recovery in exports to China.