fbpx
Print this page
Tuesday, 26 March 2019 10:15

Global supply/demand favours Fonterra

Written by 
Chief executive Miles Hurrell. Chief executive Miles Hurrell.

Fonterra says its improved milk price reflects strong global demand relative to supply.

The co-op is forecasting a farmgate milk price of $6.30-$6.60/kgMS.

Chief executive Miles Hurrell told a media briefing last week that good demand for ingredients was coming from Asia, including Greater China.

On the supply front, milk growth has slowed due to trying weather in some large milk producing regions.

Australia’s milk production is forecast to be down 7-9% on last season due to drought; in the EU, growth has slowed and is forecast to be less than 1% on last year.

Hurrell says for Fonterra farmers, the strong dry weather has also impacted milk production. 

The co-op two weeks ago downgraded its milk forecast for the season from 1530 million kgMS to 1510 million kgMS for 2018-19. This is slightly above last season’s collections of 1505 million kgMS, a season also impacted by poor onfarm conditions.

Hurrell notes that milk price is an important metric for the co-op. “We are owned by 10,000 farming families and their livelihood depends on the milk price.”

Fonterra is promising farmers more accurate forecasting -- a tough task given volatility in weather and geopolitics. “This makes forecasting difficult; that’s why we have resorted to ranges in our forecast,” Hurrell says.

Hurrell last week outlined the priorities for the co-op for the second half of the 2018-19 financial year: to meet the earnings guidance, deliver on the three-point plan and fundamentally reset the business so it can achieve sustainable earnings.

“We have a forecast farmgate milk price of $6.30-$6.60/kgMS but we also have to meet our earnings guidance range of 15-25 cents per share,” says Hurrell.

Fonterra’s three-point plan involves taking stock of the business and reviewing its business portfolio, getting the basics right and improving its forecasting. 

“We’ve made good progress so far and we will continue to take these steps in the second half to firm up our foundations and strengthen our balance sheet,” says Hurrell.

“The second half will also see us continuing the work on developing a new strategy to support a much-needed change in direction. We are doing the right things but it’s clear more is needed to lift our performance. We need to simplify and improve the co-op so we can grow value.”

More like this

Winston's crusade

OPINION: A short-term sugar hit. That's what NZ First leader Winston Peters is calling the proposed sale of Fonterra's consumer and associated businesses.

Featured

Carrfields invests in new Ashburton R&D hub

The Ashburton-based Carrfields Group continues to show commitment to future growth and in the agricultural sector with its latest investment, the recently acquired 'Spring Farm' adjacent to State Highway 1, Winslow, just south of Ashburton.

Elite sheep dogs to go head-to-head at Ashburton A&P Show

A major feature of the Ashburton A&P Show, to be held on October 31 and November 1, will be the annual trans-Tasman Sheep Dog Trial test match, with the best heading dogs from both sides of the Tasman going head-to-head in two teams of four.

National

Machinery & Products

New pick-up for Reiter R10 merger

Building on experience gained during 10 years of making mergers/ windrowers, Austrian company Reiter has announced the secondgeneration pick-up on…

Krone EasyCut B1250 fold

In 2024, German manufacturer Krone introduced the F400 Fold, a 4m wide disc front mower, featuring end modules that hinge…