El Niño Spring Outlook: What to Expect in Five NZ Regions
El Niño has officially been with us for several weeks now, and late winter and early September have given us a taste of what is to come.
That’s according to NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert who says close to eight million trays are expected this season, with strong export demand from Australia and across an increasingly diverse range of markets.
“The sector is taking a targeted approach to building a more diverse range of export markets across Australia, Asia and North America,” Siebert told Rural News.
He says this includes market insights, targeted promotional programmes in priority markets and raising the profile of New Zealand Avocados at international trade shows.
“Alongside the commercial activity of our exporters, this is helping build awareness of New Zealand as a premium avocado origin, strengthen customer relationships and create more options for our growing export crop,” he says.
Siebert says the recently-signed NZ-India free trade agreement (FTA) is a positive long-term opportunity for the industry.
“While the logistics of accessing this market currently constrain volumes, the phased removal of tariffs will improve the competitiveness of New Zealand avocados and provide a platform to develop a market where consumption is currently relatively small but has significant growth potential,” he says.
Meanwhile, RaboResearch has released its Global Avocado Update 2026, suggesting a drop in avocados exported in the 2025/26 season.
Report co-author and RaboResearch senior analyst, Jen Corkran says Australia remained New Zealand’s largest export market, at 750,000 trays or 22% market share.
However, she says volumes declined meaning New Zealand’s avocado sector is less reliant on its Trans- Tasman counterparts than five years ago.
“To offset weaker Australian demand, the sector continues to diversify, with strong growth across Asia,” Corkran says.
She says that exports to South Korea surged 70% year-on-year to 625,000 trays in the 25/26 season. At the same time, shipments to China, Hong Kong, and India almost doubled and exports to Taiwan increased by 50%.
“Global exports have risen dramatically, from 0.73 million metric tons in 2010/11 to more than 3.3 million tons in 2025/26, with Mexico and Peru as the dominant contributors alongside growing volumes from others like Kenya, Spain, Colombia and South Africa,” she adds.
“Rather than a broad supply squeeze, El Niño will likely increase variability of yields and fruit sizes across regions, thereby amplifying seasonal imbalances and market volatility,” Corkran says.
On the demand side, the report says some established markets are showing signs of maturity while new players continue to increase demand.
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The avocado sector expects to harvest eight million trays this season. |
“Global avocado demand continues to display a dual-speed dynamic, with mature markets approaching saturation, while emerging consumption regions sustain structurally higher growth,” she says.
“Mexico and Chile remain clear outliers in per capita/ per annum availability (standard measure used to estimate average per person consumption) at approximately 14kg and 9kg respectively, suggesting limited headroom relative to emerging consumption regions.
“In contrast, steady expansion across large population markets like the EU, which reached 2.24kg per capita in 2025, indicates significant growth potential.
“Countries such as Italy, Germany and Turkey are also exhibiting rapid relative growth, pointing to broad-based adoption rather than niche consumption.”
