NZ Wine Forum 2026: India FTA and South Korea Insights

The New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement won't yield results overnight, Sonal C Holland MW told attendees at the New Zealand Wine 2026 Wine Business Forum in Wellington in August.

But those who act early, commit fully and practice patience could find success in the world's "next big alcohol market", she said. "If you really want to build something of sustainable value in India, my advice to you would be, do not wait until the effects of the FTA play out."

Sonal's scintillating session wrapped up a packed programme, including Justin Noland's practical guide to using artificial intelligence, the new playbook required to sell wine in the United States, a view of South Korea's market opportunities, the long sales tail of wine tourism, and Invivo's bold branding manoeuvres.

Charlotte Read, New Zealand Winegrowers General Manager Brand, said the theme - Winning in Changing Markets - reflected the challenges being faced by the industry, as well as the opportunities. "Wine is competing for consumer attention in an increasingly complex environment," she said in opening the programme. "Both economic pressures and changing consumption habits continue to shape demand."

Despite those headwinds, New Zealand wine continued to demonstrate resilience, underpinned by decades of international success. "Our wines are sought after around the world - outperforming the broader category, supported by a reputation for quality, sustainability and premium positioning. As an industry, we have navigated periods of change before, and our ability to adapt, to innovate and to work together, remains one of our greatest strengths."

India: Committing Long Term

With its population of 1.4 billion, India is one of the largest drinks markets in the world, worth over US$55 billion, although that is heavily dominated by spirits. Wine makes up a little more than US$300 million, with New Zealand's NZ$438,000 portion a pretty miniscule speck of the pie.

But with a surging economy and growing per-capita income, there's a drive towards premium products, said Sonal, a leading voice on wine in India. "Indians are not just drinking more. We are also drinking better," with consumers trading up from Indian whisky to premium Scotch, from canned to craft beers, "and from barely drinking wine to adopting it as part of their everyday lifestyle."

Nearly 60% of the population is under 35. "Compare that to your traditional export markets - in the US, in the UK, Western Europe, thee wine drinker is ageing, and is not being replaced," she said. "You are fighting for a shrinking pool." Meanwhile, the perception of wine in India is a healthy and moderate, rather than indulgent. "Basically, wine is healthy, wine is socially acceptable, and wine is usually aspirational." Women are a key demographic driving growth, Sonal said, with research showing they are embracing wine faster than any other group, finding it sophisticated, appealing and "less socially inhibiting" than other alcohol.

There's also a growing desire to know more about wine, with masterclasses, luxury dinners and "our latest fascination with wine tourism". Well-travelled Indians who experience wine abroad return wanting to know more, fuelling domestic wine tourism growth - Sula Vineyards in Nashik, for example, has seen 21% growth year-on-year. But while these people may be drinking Sula today, "they won't be drinking Sula tomorrow", Sonal said. "These are people who will seek other exciting wines as they go up the learning curve." That curve points both ways, she said, predicting New Zealand's next "great opportunity" lies in attracting Indian consumers to its vineyards, then benefitting when those visitors seek out the same wines when they return home.

The FTA signed this year will see tariffs on New Zealand's wine reduce by half in year one, from 150% to 75%, and will further continue to reduce on value of the wine. "Wines that felt expensive in India will start to feel more accessible to consumers... that is a complete repositioning of your premium wines in the Indian market." But there are reality checks too: import duty is only one part of the cost associated with selling in India, with state-level taxes, logistics, warehousing, distribution and marketing all adding to the final price, she said. Meanwhile, India's 28 states each have independent excise laws, complicating matters for importers.

Her tips for approaching the market begin with getting to know it - spend the next 12 months visiting and understanding the market firsthand. "Nothing replaces being on the ground." The choose your importer wisely, she said, comparing that decision to choosing a life partner. "Don't say yes on the first date," but once you have chosen, commit to building the relationship. Her third suggestion is to invest in trade and consumer education, because wine knowledge in India remains limited despite growing interest. And understand the import process, including India's complex regulatory landscape, she said, offering her white paper, the India Wine Insider, as a comprehensive resource.

With India now a fixture of boardroom conversations worldwide, producers who wait risk losing importer options and shelf space to those who move first, she said. Australia is already a strong and growing force, and the EU concluded its own FTA with India last year. "The FTA, in my honest and humble opinion, does not give New Zealand an advantage. It simply removes a disadvantage. The real advantage is the global admiration that you enjoy."

Sonal predicted that within a decade, as tariffs fall and India's middle class passes 700 million. "I'll probably be back in New Zealand giving a speech about how the Indian wine market was built by people like you."

From K-Pop to Sauvignon Blanc

South Korea was another exciting market discussed on the day, with continued growth opportunities along with caveats. Having caught their attention with some Gangnam Style, New Zealand Trade and Enterprise's (NZTE) South Korea Head of Business Development, You Jin Lee, told attendees that New Zealand holds thee position of number one white wine in Korea, with a 32% share. There has been "amazing growth" for New Zealand wine exports in the market, moving from $10 million in 2020 to a little over $50 million in 2025, with significant growth between 2024 and 2025. Those figures have softened in 2026, You Jin said, urging companies to work to maintain the momentum, including in premiumisation. "Consumers are ready and sommeliers are really hungry for it."

You Jin touched on outcomes of recent NZTE research, supported by New Zealand Winegrowers, which shows that awareness of New Zealand wine remains relatively low, but that Korean consumers respond exceptionally well once they discover it.

Koreans "love to drink", with the highest per-capita volume consumption in the world, she said, noting that alcohol - mostly beer and soju - is an integral part of social gatherings. Red wine has typically been dominant, but white has been growing significantly, driven in part by the growing segment of female wine drinkers who like fruit-forward and fresh white wines, she said.

While there is relatively low awareness of New Zealand wine, "the good news is that once they consider us, the figure increases significantly," You Jin said, noting that every percentage increase in the awareness and consideration categories directly translates into purchase and sales. "More than half the potential consumers have not met us yet. That is not a weakness. Actually, it is an opportunity," she said. "Once they get to know New Zealand wine, Koreans fall in love."

Winning Tomorrow in the US

The "old playbook" no longer works in the US market, Erin Kirschenmann told delegates at the Business Forum. In her session - 'Wine: Winning Tomorrow Will Not Be the Same as Yesterday' - the Managing Editor of Wine Business Monthly warned against companies doing the same thing they've done in the past. "Wine has fundamentally changed. The consumer has fundamentally changed."

The US market enjoyed a long run of growth and premiumisation, before slowing down in 2017 and 2018, enjoying a few years as a "mature market", then moving into decline, she said emphasising that this is not a phase, but a "structural reset".

Erin flagged three converging pressures, starting with distribution, following the bankruptcy of Republic National Distribution Company, the second-largest distributor in the United States. "The big are eating the big," she said, warning of further shakeout and cautioning wineries not to expect remaining distributors to sell their wine for them.

The second was the Trump administration, including tariffs, which she described as "chaos". But those who continue investing in the US market through the disruption will be "primed for growth" on the other side. The third pressure is the changing consumer, with America's demographic profile shifting rapidly to a more multicultural base. She said the industry had been slow to show these consumers that wine can be part of their culture, pointing to a lack of pairing guidance for Indian, Thai, Vietnamese or Korean food, and the absence of wine at occasions other than classic dining traditions.

Younger consumers add further complexity. When asked, they say they want sweet wine, then reject the style when given it. “What they really mean is that they want a fruity wine – something that tastes like a fruit they recognise.” They also want sparkling and fun formats, she said. “They want wine to fit into their life.”

Turning to where the category is winning, Erin singled out aromatic whites as a bright spot: “Thank you to your Sauvignon Blanc – it is saving the wine industry in the United States.” New Zealand is the only country that has seen growth in value in the US, “so you guys are bucking the trend here,” she said. “Please stay the course.”

Wine cocktails, flavoured wines and high-alcohol styles are also gaining ground, she said, giving examples of younger consumers adding jalapeños or Gatorade to their wine. “They are drinking it. They are buying it. They’re making it their own.” Alternative packaging formats, including the Bagnum, are resonating with younger drinkers for the same reasons. “They love the fact that they can have a glass of wine at night, and it’s not going to impact their health, and they can come back a couple days later and have another glass and it still tastes just as fresh. They love cans they can take hiking. They love tetra packs. Anything that feels just a little bit easier.” Meanwhile, sustainability is no longer a differentiator, but rather “table stakes”, she said. “You have to be sustainable in some way, shape or form, to win in this market.”

She also urged companies to lean into different occasions. Wine has won the dinner table, but what about potential consumers who are hiking, at book club, or on the couch watching television? Wineries could look to lifestyle content creators, “little luxury” positioning and sports occasions, where women in particular may prefer a wine option to beer or an expensive cocktail.

New Zealand is well placed to capture these opportunities given its reputation in the US for hospitality, adventure, the outdoors and The Lord of the Rings, Erin said. That could be leveraged through partnerships with the likes of tour and hiking guides, hospitality venues and non-wine collaborations, referring to the likes of Jermaine Stone, The Wolf of Wine, who marries wine and hip-hop. Her own side hustle, Novel Pairings (see sidebox), links wine with novels in a growing online community.

Above all, wineries needed to shift focus away from product-led storytelling to appeal to new consumers, she said. “Terroir, soil, vineyard, winemaker, barrels – it is boring, even for somebody like me.” Meanwhile, speed and agility in responding to consumer trends will separate winners from those left behind.

Despite the difficult outlook, her message to the Forum was one of resilience. “Stay the course in the United States,” she said. “The companies that invest right now, the companies that take the risk, will see the highest rewards when everything settles out.”