Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
However, rural confidence remains deep in negative territory overall with only one in 20 farmers holding an optimistic view on the prospects for the agricultural economy in the year ahead.
The latest survey — completed late last month — found farmer confidence was up on the previous quarter (Dec 2022), with the net confidence reading rising to -58%, from -71% previously. The latest survey found the number of farmers expecting conditions in the agricultural economy to improve in the coming 12 months had risen to 5% (from 4% in the previous quarter) while the percentage expecting conditions to worsen fell to 63% (down from 75%). A total of 31% were anticipating the agricultural economy to remain stable (up from 19% previously).
Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Todd Charteris said the uptick in confidence came despite incredibly challenging climatic conditions for many of New Zealand’s primary producers during the early part of 2023.
“With Cyclone Gabrielle battering much of the North Island in February, and parts of the lower South Island impacted by drought in recent months, it really has been a tough start to the year for the country’s farmers and growers,” he said.
