Thursday, 23 October 2025 09:55

Time for a viable dairy-beef system - RaboResearch

Written by  Leo Argent
RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran. RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran.

With nearly two million underutilised dairy calves born annually and the beef price outlook strong, New Zealand’s opportunity to build a scalable dairy-beef system is now.

That’s according to Rabobank’s recently released ‘Strategic Moment for Dairy-beef in New Zealand’ report. In it, the agribusiness banking specialist says with a potential value over $1.2 billion annually, this represents a strategic crossroads for New Zealand’s agricultural sector.

With global beef demand rising, strong export prices and tightening global supply are creating a lucrative window for New Zealand to expand its beef footprint.

However, realising this opportunity will require coordinated cross-sector action across breeding, herd rebuilding, rearing and value chain relationships.

“To succeed in developing a well-functioning dairy-beef system and meet evolving consumer and market expectations, collaboration is nonnegotiable,” said report co-author RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran.

Each year New Zealand’s dairy farms produce around four million calves, but only 28% are retained as replacement dairy heifers, with just over one quarter of calves born to dairy farmers currently reared as dairy-beef.

The remainders are surplus to requirement and often sent for processing at four to five days old. Corkran says herein lies the opportunity to create more value from the almost two million currently under-utilised bobby calves.

“At current average market prices for the 2024/25 export season, rearing an additional 600,000 surplus calves could unlock over $1.2 billion in value.”

With the bulk of New Zealand’s dairy herd having an early spring calving pattern to match the herd’s feed demand with peak pasture growth, most dairy calves are born within a six-week period prior to October.

Corkran explained while this system is efficient for milk production, it creates a concentrated calving window that can limit the capacity to rear all dairy calves born; a structural constraint that is a key component in New Zealand’s dairy-beef challenge.

Beyond being an economic imperative, Corkran said the issue is also a reputational one, with a more integrated dairy-beef system protecting New Zealand’s global brand and social licence whilst futureproofing the livestock sector.

“RaboResearch sees value in exploring the concept of a national dairy-beef breeding strategy. This idea would benefit from a pan-sector approach, supported by robust data and aligned with economic, genetic and environmental objectives.

“With broader industry engagement and the right support, including potential funding through MPI’s Primary Sector Growth Fund, this concept could help unlock significant progress across the sector.”

With breeding decisions made at the start of the dairy-beef value chain having impacts on quality and profitability down the line, a more strategic approach to breeding considering genetics used and time of reproduction can unlock significant value without needing to overhaul the entire dairy herd.

With risk reallocation across the value chain an important driver in the creation of a profitable dairy-beef system, Corkran highlights the use of traceability systems like wearable technology and calf ‘passports’. These could target essential dairy traits like shorter gestation and calving ease while tracking calves through ownership changes.

With rearers often carrying disproportionate risk, models such as performance-based management fees or fixed-price contracts from insemination with premiums tied to growth could provide financial certainty. Meanwhile, a rapid feedback loop between genetics providers and end users would help ensure breeding decisions remain commercially viable.

The report says the strategy utilised by government- owned farming enterprise Pāmu may offer a blueprint for integrating dairy and beef systems across the country at scale.

Pāmu, which first began rearing dairy-beef calves in 2016, reared 69% of all calves born in the 2025 fiscal year. With plans to rear 10,500 calves annually by 2026– 2027, full implementation is targeted across all 42 dairy farms – milking 40,000 cows – and rearing 100% of calves by the end of the decade.

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