Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
Sentiment among horticulture producers is strongest due to a recovery in the kiwifruit industry following the PSA outbreak and stronger prices.
Completed earlier this month, the latest quarterly survey showed New Zealand farmer confidence eased this quarter with 42% of the country's farmers expecting the agricultural economy to improve in the next 12 months (compared to 56% last quarter) while 13% of farmers expect conditions to worsen (up from 5% previously) and 44% expect conditions to remain the same.
Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Ben Russell said the results largely reflected changes in the economic cycle with interest rates increasing and the likelihood of some easing in commodity prices over the next 12 months.
Horticulture producers were found to be the most optimistic with 58% expecting the rural economy to improve in the year ahead.
"Horticulture producers are starting to see better prices overall, while kiwifruit growers in particular are in the midst of a recovery following the PSA outbreak in 2011," Russell says.
Of those farmers expecting agricultural conditions to worsen, 42% cited falling commodity prices (down from 54% previously) followed by concerns about the rising New Zealand dollar (22% up from 14% last quarter). Worries about government regulation/policy eased this quarter (from 22% to 5%).
Of the farmers expecting the rural economy to improve, 48% cited rising commodity prices (down from 57%) followed by confidence in overseas market conditions (stable at 34 %).
