Ray Smith: Dairy still has growth potential despite flat export outlook
Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Director General Ray Smith believes there is potential for an increase in dairy farming in New Zealand.
The Ministry for Primary Industries' latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report forecasts horticulture export revenue will rise 5% to $9.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2026.
Revenue from kiwifruit exports is expected to rise 4% to $4.3 billion, with another good season increasing yields and continued strong prices.
Apples had favourable growing conditions for the 2025 crop, delivering an early harvest with good fruit size and quality contributing to its $1 billion export milestone.
A large cherry harvest is expected to lift cherry export revenue by 5% to $130 million, while vegetable export revenue is projected to rise modestly.
HortNZ chief executive Kate Scott says the forecast in export revenue will be welcomed by growers and regional communities.
“New Zealand’s world-class horticulture sector continues to build momentum, which is great news.
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“Our growers, exporters and supply chain partners have shown real resilience and dedication in the face of challenges such as flooding at the top of the South Island.
“They can be very proud of their hard work to ensure quality and nutritious New Zealand fruit and vegetables is on tables around the globe.
“While the export outlook is positive, stronger export earnings do not always flow through to the farm gate. Growers continue to face significant cost pressures, which can limit the impact of higher returns.
“For the sector to grow and invest with confidence, horticulture businesses need to be profitable. Ensuring growers are able to capture value is essential to the long-term strength and sustainability of the industry.”
Scott says the positive outlook supports the sector’s ambition to double farmgate value by 2035, as set out in the Aotearoa Horticulture Action Plan.
“It also underlines the importance of policy settings that enable growers to produce nutritious, affordable fruit and vegetables efficiently and sustainably.”
