Tough outlook for 2024!

That's the word from the Ministry for Primary Industries latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI), released at the end of last week. It predicts that the overall value of NZ's primary exports for 2024 will be down by 5% to $54.3 billion from 2023's $57.4 billion.

Dairy revenue is predicted to be down 7% to $24.1 billion - but it is expected to pick up later in 2024.

Meat and wool revenues are also expected to decrease by 5% to $11.6 billion but again pick up a little bit the following year.

However, the news for forestry is bad with a forecast of a 9% drop to $5.8 billion in revenue and prospects for the future not at all bright.

Talking of bright, the horticulture sector, which has gone through with severe frosts, cyclones and floods, revenue from this sector is expected to be down by just 1% to $7.0 billion and prospects for 2025 look very good. The strength of the horticulture sector – along with arable – has cushioned some of the negative results from the meat and wool, dairy and forestry sectors.

MPI director general Ray Smith cogently described the primary sector as having to “navigate a confluence of global events” – including the Covid pandemic and overseas conflicts, which have caused significant challenges for NZ primary producers.

Added to this is rising inflation and cost of living, which has suppressed consumer demand, causing a slowdown in China.

While the news for 2024 is mainly bleak, it comes after some pretty good years which saw primary exports rise from $46.3 billion in 2019 to $57.4 billion in 2023, with dairy in particular being very strong.

The outlook for lamb is heavily influenced by the glut of Australian lamb on world markets and reduced consumer demand – factors that are already well known.

The shining star is once again horticulture. While kiwifruit has faced two challenging harvests in 2022 and 2023, the report says the prospects of the upcoming harvest in March 2024 look good, assuming the weather obliges.

Apples and pears have also been affected by the weather but the prospects in the coming years are also positive.

The report also has a few key reminders of the importance of NZ’s primary sector – namely that 70,000 enterprises are engaged in the industry, that it employs 358,000 people and contributes around 16% of the country’s GDP.