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Nic Lees, Lincoln University, asks if Synlait's assets could be worth more to other owners than they are within Synlait itself.
Speculation of a possible joint move by Fonterra and a2 Milk to buy Synlait raises a much bigger strategic question, says agribusiness expert Dr Nic Lees.
He asks if Synlait's assets could be worth more to other owners than they are within Synlait itself?
Lees, a senior lecturer in agribusiness management at Lincoln University, says both Fonterra and a2 Milk could benefit in different ways.
For a2 Milk, the attraction is specialised nutrition manufacturing.
"Synlait's Dunsandel plant remains important to its infant formula supply chain, and greater control could reduce manufacturing risk," he says.
For Fonterra, the opportunity may be less about owning another factory and more about gaining access to Synlait's Canterbury milk pool.
"Fonterra can optimise milk across a much larger South Island network, potentially directing it into higher-value products and processing streams," he says.
"This is something Synlait has not been able to do. Synlait has needed to switch from high-value infant formula to lower-value commodities when milk supply peaks."
For Bright Dairy, the majority owner of Synlait, the calculation is different again.
"It must decide whether selling now provides better value than continuing to support Synlait as an independent business," he says.
Lees notes that Synlait has said it is not involved in discussions, so this remains speculative.
"The question isn't what Synlait is worth today, but what its different assets are worth to different owners."
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