Editorial: Happy days
OPINION: The year has started positively for New Zealand dairy farmers and things are likely to get better.
His comments come in the light of his organisation’s six-monthly report on the state of the primary sector and predictions for the future. The outlook report shows revenue from the horticulture sector will pass the $9 billion dollar mark by the end of June this year – a 5% increase on last year’s massive 24% increase. And the news gets even better with horticulture exports predicted to reach $9.5 billion by 2027.
The charge is being led by kiwifruit exports which rose by 45% a year ago and will rise a further 4% this year.
Smith says kiwifruit is an amazing story.
“It just continues to grow - over $4 billion now with the result that per hectare returns for orchards are at great levels. This is phenomenal, it’s grown so rapidly and it’s growing at billions of dollars a year –
and it’s not just out of NZ but also Zespri’s international growing areas such Italy,” he says.
Smith notes that kiwifruit is on a real high and says when you travel around the world and have breakfast in a hotel, kiwifruit is on the menu.
“I certainly have had kiwifruit on the other side of the world, so everyone is eating kiwifruit,” he says.
According to the report, export volumes of kiwifruit in the 2025/26 growing season are projected to grow by at least 9% to 215 million trays. The report notes that Zespri is projecting that per hectare returns for green kiwifruit in the 2025/26 season will be $111,471 (up 24%), Gold $182,538 (up 7%) and $77,598 for Red (also up 7%). Zespri notes that the the lower returns for Red are due to lower average yields as the newer Red variety plantings mature.
Rosy Times for Apples
Apples are also a great story because not so long ago we were talking about the devastating effects of Cyclone Gabrielle on Hawke’s Bay. Ray Smith says apple exports by June 30 will reach over $1.2 billion dollars.
China remains the major export market for our apples, followed by Vietnam and Taiwan and now Indian sneaking into fourth place. The latter is significant given that tariffs on apples to India will be reduced considerably when the FTA with India comes into effect – probably later this year.
The avocado industry is still in roller coaster mode, according to MPI. Export revenue almost tripled to $109 million to June 2025, driven by a bumper crop of around 7.6 million trays and strong export prices. But revenue to June 2026 will see revenue drop 16% to $91 million due to higher production and price pressure in Australia – the sector’s main market. But a compensating factor is that exports to Asia and Canda are off to a good start.
Also positive are cherry exports that are expected to make $130 million – a 5% increase on last season, which was a very good one for the sector. At the same time, fresh and processed vegetable exports are showing resilience says MPI with export revenue to be $750 million in 2025/26.
