What Would Synlait Be Worth to Fonterra or a2 Milk?
Speculation of a possible joint move by Fonterra and a2 Milk to buy Synlait raises a much bigger strategic question, says agribusiness expert Dr Nic Lees.
With the current global economic outlook, this may not be the only revision for the 2011/12 season, he says.
"I don't think there are many farmers who were not expecting a downwards revision. We had indications from the globalDairyTrade auction that prices have been drifting south.
"Most economic forecasters also expect commodity prices will ease over 2012. It's fair to say the international picture is more than a little choppy, especially with China revising its Gross Domestic Product forecast downwards.
"This is the reality New Zealand's primary exporters have to deal with. We're completely trade exposed and it's a fact of life for us. Times can be good, but we also know from the 2008-9 season, they can be pretty hard too.
"Farming returns can sometimes resemble an oscillograph. This is why corporate investors looking for predictable returns tend to find farming difficult."
Leferink says while the primary industries are generally growing, overall sector debt levels aren't.
Many farmers have heeded our advice to run conservative budgets focused on reducing debt, he says.
"That said, we're increasingly anxious over how the Kiwi dollar is defying gravity. While soft commodities are correcting our dollar ought to be doing the same but isn't.
"While good growing conditions have helped us put in a blinder of a season, a high dollar could well skim the cream."
