Red meat exports slump, thanks to China
Weaker pricing and demand from China continue to impact New Zealand red meat export earnings.
The US sharemarket has “largely priced in a Clinton victory”, says the NZIER, but what impact would an upset win to Donald Trump have on our economy?
When the NZIER released its report, Trupmonomics, late last week, the pollsters gave Trump a 20-30% chance of victory. Today a Reuters/Ipsos survey gave Hillary Clinton a 90% chance of taking the White House. However, Trump has bucked expectations time after time during the run-up to election day.
If he does win today, will the shock of the unexpected result impact markets like the Brexit result in the United Kingdom did? NZIER expects the immediate impact would be seen in credit conditions, the exchange rate and the US sharemarkets. Funding costs could rise as lenders became more risk averse.
Softer US economic growth could reduce demand for New Zealand’s exports, says NZIER. And it says “no reputable economic assessment” of Trump’s economic policies has demonstrated how his ideas will generate sustained productivity growth.
“One estimate is that Trump’s trade policies alone – namely imposing 35-45% tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports – could result in the loss of up to 4.8 million US jobs. Ouch.”
Anything that hurt the US economy would reduce demand for New Zealand exports.
“We exported $8.4 billion of goods and services there in CY2015, accounting 12% of our total export revenue.”
Key products are beef ($1.6 billion), dairy ($1b), wine ($432m), lamb ($288m) and wood ($182m).
NZIER says that from our perspective, the most concerning aspects of Trump’s proposed economic policies are his views on trade. “He has run on a platform of protectionist and mercantilist rhetoric.”
As for the chances of the US backing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, both Trump and Clinton appeared to be ruling this out during their campaigning.
Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) director general Ray Smith says job cuts announced this morning will not impact the way the Ministry is organised or merge business units.
Scales Corporation is acquiring a number of orchard assets from Bostock Group.
Family and solidarity shone through at the 75 years of Ferdon sale in Otorohanga last month.
The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has informed staff it will cut 391 jobs following a consultation period.
New Zealand farmers are committed to making their businesses more resilient to climate change and are embracing innovation to help them do so.
Atiamuri farmers Paul and Lesley Grey never gave up their dream of owning their own farm – and in 2020, that dream came true.
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