Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
The global agribusiness banking specialist says with the United Kingdom and the EU-27 nowadays only contributing a relatively small share of New Zealand food and agricultural (F&A) exports – 4.3% and 8.8% respectively by value – the direct trade implications of the UK's historic decision to leave the European Union would be limited for the agricultural sector as a whole.
However, the report notes, for some sectors – particularly sheepmeat, wool, fruit and wine – the direct export exposure is more significant.
Rabobank senior analyst Marc Soccio says these sectors in particular would be exposed to any sustained negative impact Brexit had on the UK economy and household incomes, as well as price inflation due to adverse currency moves.
