Be afraid
OPINION: Your old mate hears some of the recent uptick in farmer confidence has slipped since the political polls started leading a bit to the left, away from the current coalition of National, Act and NZ First.
Commodity prices and interest rates play a huge role in shaping farmer confidence, but these factors are beyond their control, says Federated Farmers dairy chair Richard McIntyre.
He says to do its share to help lift farmer confidence, Federated Farmers has been focusing its energy on what it can influence - making sure farming rules are practical, affordable and fair.
McIntyre made the comments as Federated Farmers' January survey shows farmers' confidence in current general economic conditions has surged from a deeply negative -66% in July 2024 to a net positive score of 2%.
Meanwhile, a net 23% of farmers now expect better economic conditions over the next year - the highest confidence level since January 2014. There has also been a sharp lift in profitability, with 54% of farmers now reporting making a profit - double the number in the last survey six months ago.
McIntyre told Dairy News that it's incredibly satisfying to see farmer confidence rebounding so strongly, particularly in the dairy sector.
"It's been a tough few years for many dairy farming families with incomes down, costs up, and unpaid bills starting to pile up on the kitchen bench.
"I think we're seeing a collective sigh of relief as some of that pressure starts to lift."
McIntyre notes that there's no denying that interest rates and commodity prices play a huge part in farmer confidence.
"In fact, I'd go as far as saying that farmer confidence is tied very closely to interest rates.
"But they're also not the only factors. We've seen in the past that low interest rates and a good dairy payout doesn't always mean farmer confidence will lift. You've also got to have the right regulatory settings for farmers so they can see a future for their business that's worth investing in.
"We can't control interest rates, and we can't control the milk price, so Federated Farmers have been focusing our energy on what we can have influence on - making sure farming rules are practical, affordable and fair."
McIntyre says his organisation will continue working on helping boost farmer confidence. This includes keeping the focus on banking.
"We've got our 12-point plan for restoring farmer confidence, and we're going to keep working to that. Having a plan is only half the battle. You've also got to execute it.
"The Government have been working through that list of 12 very quickly, but announcements aren't enough. We need to see them follow through with the detail and deliver meaningful policy change for farmers.
"One of our biggest focuses for the next few months is going to be banking - we've just presented to Parliament's banking inquiry earlier this week and we're doing everything we can to keep the heat on.
"This is partly about the banks and how they treat farmers, but the issue's a lot more complex than that. We're also looking at the wider banking system, including the Reserve Bank rules, and how that impacts on farmers' bottom lines.
"I'm also really keen to make sure the Government follow through and give young farmers access to their KiwiSaver to buy their first herd, flock, or farm.
"That would be a game changer for our next generation of farmers coming through who are desperately trying to pull together enough capital to get on the ladder."
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