Decline in beef production, notably lean beef in New Zealand's biggest market, the US, means NZ product will be in demand, says report co-author Matt Costello.
New Zealand's production is also expected to be lower in 2014 compared to the drought-induced surge in 2013, he adds.
"The overall increase in processing levels through 2013 was the direct result of a high cow kill, as more cows were carried over from 2011/12 due to favourable pasture conditions in New Zealand."
Costello says New Zealand beef production in 2014 will likely be limited by dairy herd expansion but minimal decline in beef cattle numbers. The past decade's rapid growth in dairy is expected to slow as land availability and environmental pressures and regulations grow, he adds.
Exporters will see increased interest from the US but competition from Indian buffalo meat will likely limit growth in exports to some South East Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
Globally beef production is forecast to remain relatively steady compared to 2013 but the US, like New Zealand, will experience a significant decline in production.
"The urgency to rebuild the US herd is becoming ever more pressing due to the ongoing liquidation over the past three or so years," says Costello.
"If weather permits, US producers will need to grow cattle numbers which are now at 60-year lows. With tight US supply forecast for 2014, this will help drive strong demand for New Zealand product."
India became the world's second-largest bovine exporter in 2012 and growth in shipments continued in 2013, rising 4% or 22,000 tonnes in the first half, Costello notes.
"Of particular importance is India's continued push of buffalo exports into markets such as Vietnam and Thailand presumably through grey channel for re-export to China."
However, New Zealand exports to China are forecast to remain strong as China will continue to face a supply deficit, creating strong demand for imports, says Costello.
Brazil will likely regain formal access to Chinese beef markets in early 2014, which will give China the opportunity to diversify its supply base. New Zealand currently accounts for 18 per cent of China's formal imports.
STRONG INTERNATIONAL demand and tight local supply augur well for beef producers in 2014, says a new report by Rabobank.
Popular Reads
MPI launches industry-wide project to manage feral deer
An industry-wide project led by Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) is underway to deal with the rising number of feral…Early drought fears ease in Hawke’s Bay, but caution remains
Fears of a serious early drought in Hawke’s Bay have been allayed – for the moment at least.Fonterra shareholders watch performance after sale
Fonterra shareholders say they will be keeping an eye on their co-operative's performance after the sale of its consumer businesses.Idea of killing cows to curtail methane emissions 'crazy'
Visiting US climate change expert Dr Will Happer says the idea of reducing cow numbers to greatly reduce methane emissions…Featured
Rural health programme inspires new optometry graduate
Grace Su, a recent optometry graduate from the University of Auckland, is moving to Tauranga to start work in a practice where she worked while participating in the university's Rural Health Interprofessional Programme (RHIP).
Waikato dairy effluent breaches lead to $108,000 in fines
Two farmers and two farming companies were recently convicted and fined a total of $108,000 for environmental offending.
Geopolitical shifts drive fertiliser market volatility – Ravensdown
According to Ravensdown's most recent Market Outlook report, a combination of geopolitical movements and volatile market responses are impacting the global fertiliser landscape.
Environment Canterbury promotes on-farm composting as a practical alternative to offal pits
Environment Canterbury, alongside industry partners and a group of farmers, is encouraging farmers to consider composting as an environmentally friendly alternative to offal pits.
Indian FTA 'opens doors for dairy'
A New Zealand dairy industry leader believes the free trade deal announced with India delivers wins for the sector.
Coalition Govt split over Indian FTA
The Coalition Government will need the support of at least one opposition party to ratify the free trade deal with India.
National
Fonterra capital return could boost GDP – ANZ Report
The Fonterra divestment capital return should provide “a tailwind to GDP growth” next year, according to a new ANZ NZ report,…Fonterra upgrades Eltham cheese production for global growth
Fonterra's Eltham site in Taranaki is stepping up its global impact with an upgrade to its processed cheese production lines,…Michelle Pye elected to Fonterra board
Canterbury farmer Michelle Pye has been elected to Fonterra’s board for a three-year term.Government plan to scrap regional councils faces criticism
Government plans to get rid of regional councillors shows a lack of understanding of the fundamental problem affecting all of…Lactose to join fat and protein in Fonterra milk price model
For over 20 years, Whakatane farmer Gerard Van Beek has been attending Fonterra annual general meetings with the same message…Machinery & Products
Case IH Unveils New RB6 Round Balers & 2026 Square Baler Upgrades
Case IH has released details of its all-new round balers and redesigns to its large square balers aimed at increasing…How to Improve Milking Efficiency in Swing-Over Herringbone Sheds
The swing-over herringbone is the most common dairy type in New Zealand, used on 69% of dairy farms. Simple changes…Claas Jaguar 1000 Series sets new forage harvesting world record
The recently released Claas Jaguar 1000 Series has seen its flagship 1200 set a new official Guiness World Record in…CB Norwood appoints John Skurr as new general manager
CB Norwood Distributors Limited has announced the appointment of John Skurr to the position of general manager.AIMER, Bovonic and Herd-i join forces to advance NZ dairy tech
Three New Zealand agritech companies are set to join forces to help unlock the full potential of technology.» Latest Print Issues Online
Milking It
Trump's tariffs
President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports into the US is doing good things for global trade, according…
Tanker on the roll
Seen a giant cheese roll rolling along Southland’s roads?


