Trade balance with the US a saving grace
New Zealand is so far escaping the unpredictable vagaries of President Donald Trump's trade policies by the skin of its teeth.
A new report by agricultural banking specialist Rabobank says diversifying export markets will be critical for New Zealand's avocado industry.
In the report Australian & New Zealand Avocado Outlook 2022, the bank says the majority of New Zealand's avocado exports currently head to Australia. It adds that the development of other export markets will be essential to ensure sustainable growth opportunities for the country's producers as production climbs.
New Zealand's avocado production is forecast to grow by an average 6% annually for the next five years reaching 57,000 tonnes by 2026 - up from 44,0000 tonnes in 2021.
"We expect the majority of this production growth will come from the Northland and Bay of Plenty regions," says the report's author, Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott. "And while the general production trend will be in an upwards direction, we also anticipate this growth will be highly variable on an annual basis due to 'alternate bearing', which results in irregular crop loads from one season to the next."
The report says New Zealand is highly reliant on Australia as an export market for avocados with our trans-Tasman neighbours accounting for 79% of total New Zealand exports over the last five years.
"However, Australian supply has ramped up considerably of late - particularly in Western Australia - leading to a national oversupply, and it's essential that the New Zealand industry continues to grow its sales into other export markets that can pick up the slack when Australian import demand is lower."
Piggott says the New Zealand avocado industry has made significant progress growing sales to other markets in 2021, despite lower exports overall.
"New Zealand's total avocado exports by volume were back by 11% in 2021, in large part due to an oversupply of avocados in Australia and the resulting drop in sales into this market," she added.
"While exports to Australia fell, strong growth was recorded in other export markets with avocado sales to the rest of the world (excluding Australia) up by 154%."
This included improved export sales into Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. NZ exports made up 9%, 4% and 12% of total imports into those markets respectively. There was also strong export growth in China, Thailand, Taiwan and India.
Piggott says while recent sales growth into these markets was promising, further market diversification will be required by the New Zealand avocado industry over the years ahead.
"While New Zealand was less reliant on Australia in 2021, Australia still accounted for two-thirds of New Zealand avocado exports by volume," she explains.
"With Australian avocado production forecast to grow rapidly over the coming years, it's essential that the New Zealand industry continues to add new overseas markets and to expand the share of its avocado exports that are heading to other countries around the world."
Recent rain has offered respite for some from the ongoing drought.
New Zealand's TBfree programme has made great progress in reducing the impact of the disease on livestock herds, but there’s still a long way to go, according to Beef+Lamb NZ.
With much of the North Island experiencing drought this summer and climate change projected to bring drier and hotter conditions, securing New Zealand’s freshwater resilience is vital, according to state-owned GNS Science.
OPINION: Otago farmer and NZ First MP Mark Patterson is humble about the role that he’s played in mandating government agencies to use wool wherever possible in new and refurbished buildings.
For Wonky Box co-founder Angus Simms, the decision to open the service to those in rural areas is a personal one.
The golden age of orcharding in West Auckland was recently celebrated at the launch of a book which tells the story of its rise, then retreat in the face of industry change and urban expansion.
OPINION: The appendage swinging contest between the US and China continues, with China hitting back with a new rate of…
OPINION: The irony of President Trump’s tariff obsession is that the worst damage may be done to his own people.