Trade balance with the US a saving grace
New Zealand is so far escaping the unpredictable vagaries of President Donald Trump's trade policies by the skin of its teeth.
Last year's fourth quarter Rabobank Rural Confidence survey found New Zealand farmer confidence rebounding strongly off the back of improved dairy farmer sentiment, with farmers across all sectors more optimistic about the prospects for the agri economy.
Following an historic low in September, the survey — completed during the last two weeks of November 2023 — found farmer confidence up to a net reading of -47% from -72% previously. The number of farmers expecting conditions to worsen over the next 12 months dropped from 77% to 58%, while those expecting conditions to improve rose from 5% to 11%.
However, despite this sizeable uplift, farmer sentiment remains low overall.
A majority of primary producers still expect the broader agricultural economy to worsen over the coming 12 months, while those who expect conditions to remain the same jumped from 15% to 29%.
Rabobank senior agriculture analyst Emma Higgins said dairy farmers recorded the biggest lift in sentiment, largely down to strong GDT results pushing dairy commodity prices – and the farmgate milk price forecast – higher.
“With this morale-boosting lift in the Fonterra payout coming just after the close of the latest survey period there’s a strong likelihood that, if taken today, dairy farmer confidence would be even higher,” she explained.
“While we did still see government policy featuring as a reason for pessimism [26%], we’ve also seen it come through as a major reason for optimism [59%].
Several announcements from the new government – including the decision to increase the size of the Recognised Seasonal Worker (RSE) scheme and the launch of a new $1.2 billion Regional Infrastructure Fund – appear to have landed well with farmers.”
Higgins added that overseas markets/ economies and rising commodity prices were the other key reasons cited by farmers for an optimistic outlook.
Meanwhile, falling commodity prices and rising input costs continued were the two most regularly cited reasons for pessimism.
Farmers across all sectors were found to be more optimistic about the prospects for their own farm businesses, with 15% of farmers (11% last quarter) now expecting the performance of their business to improve in the year ahead. Some 46% expect it to worsen (67% previously) and 37% expect performance to remain the same (from 21%).
However, while sheep and beef farmers are also generally more optimistic, their confidence remains depressed at a net reading of -62%. With lamb prices falling to their lowest level for this time of year since 2016 and little to indicate an improvement in short-term prices.
The 2025 game bird season is underway with Hawke’s Bay and Southland reporting the ideal weather conditions for hunters – rain and wind.
A group of meat processing companies, directors and managers have been fined a total of $1.6 million for deliberately and illegally altering exported tallow for profit.
New Zealand’s top cheeses for 2025 have been announced and family-owned, Oamaru-based Whitestone Cheese is the big winner.
Waikato farmer, and Owl Farm demonstration manager, Jo Sheridan is the 2025 Fonterra Dairy Woman of the Year.
New Zealand’s special agricultural trade envoy Hamish Marr believes the outlook for the dairy sector remains strong.
Everyone from experienced veterinarians and young professionals to the Wormwise programme and outstanding clinics have been recognised in this year’s New Zealand Veterinary Association Te Pae Kīrehe (NZVA) awards.
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