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THE EAST of the North Island could be warmer than usual through October–December and the southwest and east of the South Island may be cooler, says NIWA.
Temperatures are likely (45-50% chance) to be near average for remaining regions of New Zealand.
October–December rainfall is likely (45-50% chance) to be in the near normal range for the north and west of the North Island, and likely (35-40% chance) to be normal or below normal in the east of the North Island. Normal or above normal rainfall is likely (40% chance) in all South Island regions.
Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (40-45% chance) to be in their near normal ranges for all regions of New Zealand.
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
Most likely outcomes:
• Temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be in the near average range.
• Rainfall totals are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington
• Temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be near average.
• Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all most likely (45-50% chance) to be in the near normal range.
Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa
• Temperatures are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be above average or near average.
• Rainfall totals are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the below normal or normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal range.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller
• Temperatures are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near average range.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flow are most likely (40% chance) to be in the normal range.
West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland
• Temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near average or below average range.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range.
Coastal Canterbury, east Otago
• Temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near average or below average range.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal range.
With adverse weather set to rain down on the Top of the South, the Bay of Plenty and parts of Northland, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says farmers, foresters, and growers need to prepare for possible challenges.
Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson says the present weather conditions remain challenging for farmers.
While it has been a great spring and summer for farmers, soil moisture levels in the Waikato are now plummeting as the dry February starts to bite.
The government has announced a major restructuring of the country's seven crown research institutes (CRIs), which will see them merged into three public research organisations (PROs).
OPINION: NIWA has long weathered complaints about alleged stifling of competition in forecasting, and more recently, claims of lack of transparency by the Crown-owned entity - spurred by its refusal to release information under the OIA about its conduct around Cyclone Gabrielle and the Hawke's Bay flooding.
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