The latest survey of farmer confidence from Federated Farmers does not make pretty reading, says BNZ senior economic Doug Steel.

But it's not all doom and gloom.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index rose just 0.4% last week, but positive indicators will maintain market optimism for the new season, says BNZ senior economist Doug Steel.

The farmgate milk price could possibly rise beyond $7/kgMS in the 2019-20 season.

China's market share of NZ’s primary exports is material and raises the issue of concentration risk, says BNZ rural economist Doug Steel.

Global prices for our primary products are likely to be flat this year but prices may rise for some products, says BNZ rural economist Doug Steel.

With production up 6.5% on last year for the peak of the season, a downward adjustment in Fonterra’s milk price will not be surprising, says BNZ senior economic Doug Steel.

The Global Dairy Trade had its eighth consecutive fall last week putting more downward pressure on Fonterra’s $6.75/kgMS milk price forecast, says BNZ senior economist Doug Steel.

With dairy prices down nearly 13% below levels of a year ago, this adds to the downside risk to Fonterra’s newly minted $6.75/kgMS milk price forecast, says BNZ senior economist Doug Steel.

Would price declines at last week’s Global Dairy Trade auction have been bigger had there not been a downside risk to future NZ production from Mycoplasma bovis and the plan to eradicate it, wonders BNZ senior economist Doug Steel.

Fonterra's $7/kgMS opening milk price is at the top end of the range seen by market followers and analysts.