Wednesday, 31 July 2013 14:51

Forecast boost welcomed

Written by 

The Fonterra Shareholders' Council and DairyNZ have welcomed the 50c increase in forecast Farmgate Milk Price.

A 50c increase and advance for the 2013-14 season is reflection of the cooperative's strength said Fonterra Shareholders Council chairman, Ian Brown.

Fonterra has announced a revised Farmgate Milk Price forecast of $7.50/kgMS for the 2013-14 season, including a $5.50 advance, and an estimated dividend of 32c per share.

Brown says this is evidence of a strong organisation that has moved appropriately for the benefit of its supplier Shareholders.
"It will allow Fonterra Farmers to improve their financial position, provide them with some added flexibility and enable them to move into the new season with confidence.

"As always, given the volatility of the market, I urge Farmers to continue to show prudence in their financial planning."
DairyNZ says the forecast bodes well for dairy farmers being able to boost the contribution they make to the prosperity of the country this season.

"The increase in Fonterra's forecast payout translates into another $845 million circulating in the national economy from farmers," says DairyNZ chief executive Tim Mackle.

He says that farmers have had a great start to the new season with good grass growth throughout the winter and mild calving weather so far. "But it's early days, there's a lot of the season to go yet," he says. For the end of July, less 2% of milk production has been collected so far.
Mackle says that the latest payout forecast also puts the level of farm debt in a better perspective. "This latest payout forecast gives farmers cashflow confidence, because it helps them manage their overdrafts and debt easier. Many will use it to pay off debt," he says.

"The level of farm debt servicing is about twice today what it was a decade ago. But what people need to understand is that the distribution of that dairy farm debt is not uniform. About 20% of farms have virtually no debt. Another 20% carry 45% of the debt. So the level of payout forecast is more significant for those carrying a lot of debt obviously," he says.

"Farm working expenses now average around $4.30 to $4.50 per kg/MS and coupled with the extra costs incurred to service the higher average debt levels, many farmers need good milk prices to build resilience and strength into their businesses," he says.

"Essentially growth in farm operating expenses and debt servicing has roughly matched growth in income despite improved milk prices. The high Advance Rate also helps farmers with cash early in the season when they need it most."

Mackle says growing dairying's contribution to New Zealand's prosperity is one of the 10 key objectives in the industry's new dairy farming strategy, Making Dairy Farming Work for Everyone, and an increasing milk price will help achieve that.Font

"At the same time, it is still just a forecast, it's also very early in the season and things can turn on a dime, and quickly change. Farmers have learnt to live with that kind of volatility and while many will be smiling about the forecast, the excitement may also be a little tempered at this stage. Remember, we started off with a hiss and roar last season in terms of milk production, and ended up with the worst drought in 70 years. It highlights the need to keep planning and monitoring to make the best decisions."

More like this

Fonterra's in good shape

Fonterra released its interim results last month, showing a continuation of the strong earnings performance delivered by the co-op through the 2023 financial year. Here’s what Fonterra chair Peter McBride and chief executive Miles Hurrell said about the results…

China trade

OPINION: Last week's revelation that data relating to New Zealand MPs was stolen amid Chinese state-sponsored cyber espionage targeting two arms of the country’s Parliament could test the long-standing trade relations between the two countries.

Featured

Feds back Fast-Track Approval Bill

Federated Farmers is throwing its support behind the Fast-track Approvals Bill introduced by the Coalition Government to enable a fast-track decision-making process for infrastructure and development projects.

Machinery builder in liquidation

In what appears to be a casualty of the downturn in the agricultural sector, a well-known machinery brand is now in the hands of liquidators and owing creditors $6.6 million.

Two hemispheres tied together through cows

One of New Zealand’s deepest breeder Jersey herds – known for its enduring connection through cattle with the UK’s longest reigning monarch, Queen Elizabeth II – will host its 75th anniversary celebration sale on-farm on April 22.

National

Frontline biosecurity 'untouchable'

Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard has reiterated that 'frontline' biosecurity services within Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) will not be cut…

Machinery & Products

New name, new ideas

KGM New Zealand, is part of the London headquartered Inchcape Group, who increased its NZ presence in August 2023 with…

All-terrain fert spreading mode

Effluent specialists the Samson Group have developed a new double unloading system to help optimise uphill and downhill organic fertiliser…

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

Plant-based bubble bursts

OPINION: Talking about plant-based food: “Chicken-free chicken” start-up Sunfed has had its valuation slashed to zero by major investor Blackbird…

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter