Opportunities in food, fibre sector
ASB's new head of food and fibre, Kristen Ashby, believes that there’s “heaps of opportunity” in the agriculture sector.
An $8/kgMS farm gate milk price is still on the cards with less than six weeks left to run this season.
Last week's subdued Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event wasn't a surprise, according to ASB economist Nat Keall.
"We'd been anticipating a relatively flat event, so the result has few implications for the current season - already in a well-advanced stage - or our early thoughts on the next one," he says. "In general, dairy prices remain heavily range-bound, with an absence of clear direction evident since prices rebounded from the lows they fell to mid last year."
Keall notes that little has happened to radically reshape the global dairy market, and to the extent that dynamics have shifted, different price drivers have moved to offset one another.
"All-up, we still feel comfortable with our $8/kgMS forecast for the current season and our $8.30/kgMS forecast for 2024/25. Risks to next season's forecast look reasonably balanced in our view for now.
"With 2024/25 milk price futures currently trading around $8.45/kgMS, up from nearer $8 when we launched our forecast, hedging some output at that kind of price could be prudent, given the balanced skew of risks."
Fonterra says the US continues to be an important market for New Zealand dairy and the co-op.
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand's trade interests are best served in a world where trade flows freely.
New Zealand's red meat sector says it is disappointed by the United States' decision to impose tariffs on New Zealand exports.
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