Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
That's the view of Stefan Vogel, general manager of Rabobank Research for Australasia. He says a myriad of messages coming at consumers from all directions, about what to buy and what is best, put them in a quandary and often they don't know what to do.
He told delegates at the recent NZ Institute of Primary Industry Management (NZIPIM) conference there many are changes taking place for consumers. He says inflation and high prices have forced them to look seek best value for money when food shopping. The result is that people have effectively traded down, putting products such as lamb in a difficult spot.
"We have just done a study in China comparing sheepmeat and beef to the traditional big one in China, which is pork. It shows that beef and poultry are considered healthier, and we actually see a bit more growth on the consumption over there for beef, poultry and seafood compared to pork... good news for NZ," he says.
The situatin with sheepmeat with complex, says Vogel - especially given the large volumes of Australian product coming on the market - and he doesn't see this changing for another 18 months.
For NZ, combating that confusion at the supermarket is the challenge, he says. Later this year, our meat industry is launching a major 'country of origin' campaign in China, highlighting the attributes of our meat and its advantages over our competitors.
Vogel says people don't have a long attention span.
"With things like Tik Tok around you have only a few seconds to tell your message, so that must be catchy and visual. I was in China a few weeks ago and there was nice sign on top of the shelf making one product stand out. When I looked closer, I saw it was Australian beef promoted as something special, natural and healthy and I never saw anything like that about NZ," he says.
The other issue exporters to China need to respond to is that people there are not used to cooking - especially lamb. He says the younger generation live in small apartments with small kitchens, time is precious and often convenience becomes their priority. Prepared or partly prepared meals can help overcome that probllem for them. For example, having meat that is marinated will help win over consumer.
"But as well as being convenient, the food needs to be healthy and address that issue of being good for the environment.
"Packaging that all together is not easy but that is challenge of the next few years," he says.
"It takes a bit more skill to make lamb tastier and that is a challenge we can overcome by thinking how we can deliver a product that nicely fits into their pocket."
High-Value Lamb
The food service industry is another target for NZ, especially when it comes to lamb, says Stefan Vogel.
That sector needs to be convinced that the products we are offering are the important ones, so they will push sheepmeat. He says it's fantastic to go to a restaurant these days and see lamb rack on the menu that has come from certain producing group, a particular region and is a high-quality product.
"I think the right eay to go is for a higher-quality product at the higher end of the value chain," he says.
Vogel says there will likely be growth in sheepmeat consumption in China in future but adds it will not be at the levels it was in the past.
"Consequently, NZ has to be very agile in the marketing of sheepmeat products," he says.
