Facts do count
OPINION: Donald Trump may fancy, and like to get, a Nobel prize for peace, but his chances of getting on for history is mission impossible.
International trade expert Stephen Jacobi says there could be “chaos” if President-elect Donald Trump sticks to his plan to slap high tariffs on goods from three key import markets.
While New Zealand isn’t in Trump’s direct line-of-fire, Jacobi believes NZ exporters to the US will be worried.
Jacobi, the executive director of NZ International Business Forum and a member of the APEC Business Advisory Council, says things remain uncertain and speculative at this stage.
“It’s hard to say at this point, but if President Trump were to do what he says he intends to do – raise tariffs of 25% to Canada and Mexico, plus up to 50% for China, plus 10-20% for everyone else – we could see chaos,” he told Rural News.
“Trade disputes morphing into trade wars and considerable trade diversion as products are switched between markets.
“I know NZ exporters are concerned. They may not worry about things that are so uncertain and speculative, but there is no doubt that NZ’s exports, worth $9 billion, to the US would be impacted negatively if the tariff increases were to proceed.”
Jacobi notes that the previous Trump administration negotiated the US, Mexico and Canada free trade deal, so any tariffs would be a surprise.
“At another level I’m not surprised because nothing this gentleman does should come as a surprise. I would be surprised – pleasantly – if he decides not to raise tariffs.”
Jacobi expects countries hit by Trump’s tariffs to retaliate.
“I expect they will apply tariffs on US exports to their markets. That’s what the Mexican President has already said. It’s what China did last time.
“But I imagine everyone will want to strike a ‘deal’ of some sort. It’s also not a straightforward thing to implement tariffs in a highly integrated North American manufacturing market, where componentry may cross the border several times as part of complex supply chains.
“We can only expect China to respond as they did last time with tariffs of their own on US exports. We may see some fall-out of American products being re-routed to other markets to which we are selling.
“We saw that last time, especially in horticulture. It all depends on how any tariff increase is applied (if at all), the products it applies to and the timing.”
Zara Williams' personal and professional growth has seen her presented with the top award at the 2025 World Wide Sires national all dairy breeds youth camp.
To mark International Day of Education on January 24, 2025, state farmer Pāmu (Landcorp) announced the commencement of its Apprenticeship Scheme, designed to equip the next generation of farmers with the skills, knowledge, and experience needed for a thriving career in agriculture.
smaXtec's bolus technology supports early detection of potential diseases, enabling preventive measures to improve herd health and reproductive outcomes.
Next month, the Beef Breeder Forum is set to give farmers an opportunity to hear about the latest developments in the beef industry.
ACC and Safer Farms have announced a new partnership in an effort to reduce harm, injuries, and fatalities in agriculture.
A Franklin dairy farmer has inched closer to national victory after being crowned Northland’s top young farmer.
OPINION: Back in the 1960s and '70s, and even into the '80s, successive National government Agriculture Ministers and Trade Ministers…
OPINION: The new Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche has just had the hallelujah moment of the 21st century in…