Plant-based bubble bursts
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Opportunistic buyers taking advantage of low prices were probably behind last week's 3.6% overall rise in the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT), says Rabobank research analyst Emma Higgins.
While the lowest lamb crop in 60 years should support prices, the market is being swamped by other factors at present, says the ASB in its weekly commodities report.
ASB still expects dairy auction prices to rise over the season despite the GlobalDairyTrade price index falling 7.4% at the auction overnight.
Most of the major banks are predicting a drop between 4% and 8% – much higher than Fonterra's current forecast of a 2-3% fall.
Farmgate milk price forecasts by at least two banks, ASB and BNZ, have now been hiked upwards to $5/kgMS for the 2015-16 season.
ASB has lifted its milk price forecast to $5/kgMS for the season after GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction prices spiked higher for the third successive lift overnight, with the lift larger than expectations.
The 14.8% lift in the Global Dairy Trade overnight shows the circuit breaker that dairy markets have long needed is now in hand, ASB bank says.
THE ASB has revised its milk price forecast to $4.70/kgMS after prices in the GDT fell 3.1% overnight, with whole milk powder prices falling 5.1%
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