When will global milk production hit a tipping point?
With global milk prices falling, the question is when will key exporting countries reach a tipping point where production starts to dip.
"However, we note that to maintain our forecast, prices will need to rise materially over coming months, particularly as peak auction volumes are on offer for the season over the coming three months or so," says ASB rural economist Nathan Penny.
Last night's overall result was in line with expectations, says Penny. Butter prices dipped 5%, while SMP and cheddar also fell circa 1%. In contrast, Anhydrous Milk Fat and casein prices were up a touch.
"From here, and with the market focus shifting away from Brexit, dairy fundamentals should begin to drive price movements once again.
"On that front, we continue to look to data that support or otherwise our view that global supply is tightening. For example, Fonterra's NZ collections were down 10% in June versus June 2015, although it is still early days in the NZ production season."
Key Global Dairy Trade Event 168 results:
AMF index up 0.2%, average price US$3,628/MT
Butter index down 5.0%, average price US$2,687/MT
BMP index down 0.5%, average price US$1,565/MT
Ched index down 1.1%, average price US$2,886/MT
LAC index down 4.0%, average price US$721/MT
RenCas index up 0.4%, average price US$5,286/MT
SMP index down 1.1%, average price US$1,927/MT
WMP index up 1.9%, average price US$2,079/MT
