When will global milk production hit a tipping point?
With global milk prices falling, the question is when will key exporting countries reach a tipping point where production starts to dip.
This is the second time in a row it has fallen, says ASB's chief economist Nick Tuffley.
"NZ dairy production held up surprisingly well at the end of last season. But, looking ahead, the relatively weak opening forecast from Fonterra for this season is likely to prompt a more material fall in NZ production this season.
"Dairy production is also likely to fall in other important production markets.
"Australian farmers have been abruptly hit by a farm-gate milk price cut. Argentinian production is also expected to fall. In Europe we expect reality to increasingly sink in after the initial post-quota surge in production there last year.
"Consequently, we continue to expect global dairy prices to track higher over the next year."
The key results were:
AMF index up 4.4%, average price US$3,619/MT
Butter index up 5.3%, average price US$2,910/MT
BMP index down 6.6%, average price US$1,695/MT
Ched index up 6.9%, average price US$2,882/MT
LAC index up 0.6%, average price US$754/MT
RenCas index down 0.4%, average price US$5,116/MT
SMP index up 1.5%, average price US$1,901/MT
WMP index down 4.5%, average price US$2,118/MT
