Be afraid
OPINION: Your old mate hears some of the recent uptick in farmer confidence has slipped since the political polls started leading a bit to the left, away from the current coalition of National, Act and NZ First.
This comes on the back of some very positive financial news about the payout with ASB Bank forecasting a milk price of $10.25/kgMS.
Allen says there's going to be some very strong cash flows this season, all being well, and adds that this may extend into next season. He says interest rates are coming down and inflation appears to be under control.
"So, there is definitely a bounce back and more optimism among farmers," he says.
In terms of the season, Allen says it's a bit of a mixed bag. He says Southland had a challenging season and Canterbury is looking pretty strong with some moisture there saving a bit on irrigation. He says Taranaki has been drying out a bit but rain in the past few days has helped the situation.
"Waikato is dry and there is probably an orange flag there. But probably most farmers have got a year's supply of supplement tucked away and just about all our clients are planning to use that supplement to extend lactation," he says.
He says overall Northland was getting extremely dry but now it has had a reprieve with recent rain.
Meanwhile on the West Coast of the South Island, things are tough according to Fed Farmers local dairy chair Frano Volckman who farms 900 cows at Karamea.
The soils on the West Coast are stoney and need regular rain to counteract any soil moisture deficit.
He says much of the coast had a record wet spring which posed challenges and says they are now well and truly dried out and in much need of rain. To deal with the variable weather, Volckman says many farmers have been dipping into their silage reserves just because of the lack of growth with the heat and dry.
"Hopefully we'll get a few kind months and can bank some more silage to take through to the winter. But I think people will have dipped well into their reserves which will put a bit of pressure coming into the winter," he says.
Despite the variable weather, Volckman says milk production levels across the coast have held and people have done a really good job keeping their cows in good condition and feeding them well in order to maintain production.
