El Niño Spring Outlook: What to Expect in Five NZ Regions
El Niño has officially been with us for several weeks now, and late winter and early September have given us a taste of what is to come.
The question on most minds was 'what sort of El Niño should we expect?'
This growing season is shaping up to be one where preparation will matter just as much as the weather itself. While climate models indicate a strong El Niño pattern, this is unlikely to be a repeat of the classic dry El Niño 1980s and 1990s events of the past. Instead, record global ocean temperatures are adding a new layer of complexity, increasing the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere and creating the potential for heavier rainfall events when weather systems arrive.
There is good news to begin the season. After a slow and warm start to winter, recent high-pressure systems have delivered the cold nights needed to rapidly accumulate chill units. The country has effectively caught up, providing confidence that most orchards will enter spring with favourable dormancy conditions
Orchard conditions are excellent for winter work across all growing regions. Recent soil moisture and clear days of highpressure are ideal for mulching activities before spring growth accelerates. Investing time now lowers disease risk and improves soil organic matter supporting soils later in the season when water demand increases.
Looking ahead, expect a predominantly dry season across New Zealand’s fruit-growing regions. The outlook favours persistent highpressure systems to the west of the country, resulting in frequent westerly airflow, fewer prolonged rain events and tropical systems and higher ET through spring and summer. It will come as no surprise that irrigation management is one of the defining challenges of the season.
The important difference this year is that “dry” does not necessarily mean “uneventful”. Record sea surface temperatures mean the atmosphere is carrying considerably more moisture than during previous El Niño events. While long dry spells are still expected, stronger westerly systems may occasionally tap into this additional moisture and produce intense downpours or thunderstorms as they cross the country.
Growers should be prepared for periods of both water deficit and sudden heavy rainfall rather than assuming a consistently dry season.
Metris recommends setting irrigation triggers, prioritising orchard blocks, budgeting heat protection requirements (as sunburn is a risk) and closely monitor soil moisture and irrigation system performance throughout the season.
The 2026/27 season is unlikely to follow the textbook definition of El Niño. It will reward growers who combine careful monitoring with proactive planning, remain flexible as weather patterns evolve, and make early decisions around irrigation priorities.
For a full weather outlook for your region, real-time soil moisture monitoring or water consent telemetry contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Justin Courtney – head of strategy Metris.co.nz – Horticultural Forecasting Specialists
