Editorial: Preparing for El Niño

That’s the message from DairyNZ as scientists warn that a “very strong” El Niño will be impacting New Zealand over the coming months.

Modelling done by the industry-good organisation paint a bleak picture.

A very strong El Niño could lift farm working expenses to $6.78/kgMS and push the national break-even milk price to $9.07/kgMS.

This would mean narrow financial buffers while national milk production could drop between 2.1% and 3.3% depending on the severity of the weather pattern.

Projecting impacts of an El Niño event is extremely challenging because no single El Niño event plays out like another, and the expected impacts of this coming El Niño event vary significantly by region and, in some cases, sub-regionally.

The biggest risk for many farmers will be seasonal feed availability. The key is to keep feed budgets up to date, monitor pasture growth and cover, and set clear trigger points for action if conditions get tougher, according to DairyNZ.

Their message is clear: having a plan in place now gives farmers more options to respond, depending on how El Niño plays out.

New Zealand dairy farmers are experienced at managing changing conditions, but acting early is what helps protect feed reserves, autumn pasture cover and longer-term farm performance.

Farmers will most likely respond to a summer feed gap partly by buying feed and adjusting herd management.

Nationally, feed costs are anticipated to range between $1.56/kgMS under a ‘no El Niño’ event and $2.02/kgMS under a ‘very strong El Niño’.

The scary part is the effects do not stop in 2026/27. Feed, fertiliser and breakeven milk prices stay elevated into 2027-28 under various El Niño scenarios.

Some farmers say that the weather always wins. But planning now for the coming months may make losing out to El Nino less painful.