Former BBC weather presenter Daniel Corbett has taken over from the legendary Bob McDavitt as MetService weather ambassador.
He told Rural News the weather is at a crossroads and it’s too early to say if we’ll have La Nina or El Nino. Parts of an El Nino system are starting to develop in the eastern areas of the equatorial Pacific.
“We may head in that direction in the next few months, but that’s not guaranteed and that’s why we meteorologists need to watch this space over the next few weeks to see what are some of the other major global centres for climate.”
As with an economist or a lawyer, it’s hard to pin down a weather forecaster to giving an exact prediction and to be fair we all know how unpredictable the weather in New Zealand can be. Put simply there are no guarantees.
“It’s very hard to pin it down and say if you go El Nino it’s going to do this. It’s more for NIWA to make such predictions.’
Corbett is a fast talker – literally – in complete contrast to McDavitt. He admits predicting the weather in New Zealand is not easy because of the country’s location between the equator and the south pole. We have a unique topography and subtle wind changes can make the difference between rain and no rain.
“New Zealand has more micro-climates than the UK simply because of the undulating nature of our country compared with the ‘flatter’ landscape of the UK.”
But with changes in technology it’s amazing the new tools available to weather forecasters. Sitting in the MetService office in Kelburn, Wellington, forecasters can get a good idea of the weather in just about any ‘nook and cranny’ in New Zealand.
“The satellites and radars are just amazing,” he says. “They can see the wind inside a storm.”
But for all the technology, Daniel Corbett says farmers should not discount their own local knowledge in predicting weather. This local knowledge can be overlayed with information from MetService.
“There are lots of tools for farmers: live radar, planning tools such as seven- and three-day rainfalls, and the actual computer-modelled rainfall that could be in their area at a given time.
“It’s good to get out and talk to farmers at shows such as field days to let them know about the information available to them.”
While Corbett concedes they don’t always get it right, they believe it’s important to put out warnings about major impending weather events so farmers can plan. “We know their livelihood depends on the weather.”
