Be afraid
OPINION: Your old mate hears some of the recent uptick in farmer confidence has slipped since the political polls started leading a bit to the left, away from the current coalition of National, Act and NZ First.
According to the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey - completed late last month - farmer confidence is significantly down on the previous (September) quarter. The net confidence reading slumped to -71% from -31% previously.
Rabobank says this net confidence reading is the lowest in the 20-year history of the survey and far exceeds the previous low of -45% recorded amid the dairy downturn in 2015.
The survey also found that the number of farmers expecting conditions in the agricultural economy to improve in the coming 12 months had fallen to 4% (from 12% in the previous quarter), while the percentage expecting conditions to worsen rose to 75% (up from 43%).
A total of 19% anticipated that the agricultural economy would remain stable (down from 44% previously).
Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Todd Charteris says farmers from all the sectors are now significantly more pessimistic about the prospects for the broader agri economy - with a cocktail of concerns weighing heavily on farmer sentiment.
"As with recent surveys, rising farm input costs and government policy were the two major reasons cited by farmers with a pessimistic outlook for the year ahead," he says.
