B+LNZ Forecasts Lower Prices, But Still a Strong Season
Farmgate lamb prices are down by 8%, beef cattle by 4.5% and farm expenditure up by 4.2%.
A new report by Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+NZ) indicates a drop of 1.1 million (5.2%) in the number of lambs tailed/docked this year compared to last year. This means that this year the total lamb crop will be 19.2 million.
B+LNZ says the drop is due to a declining ewe flock and worse lambing rates in the South Island, which was hit by wet weather and snowstorms, affecting lamb survival. However, the report is only preliminary, with the final figures for the South Island not due until closer to Christmas. While things were bad in the south, the Norh Island had excellent lambing conditions.
The lower lamb drop has significant impacts for the meat processing companies with a shortfall of stock in the South Island in the lead-up to Christmas. B+LNZ says in the South Island, export lamb processing for the first quarter of the season is expected to be down by 22%, but up 2.4% in the North Island.
A lower lamb crop means that export lamb numbers are forecast to decrease 6.5% across the whole season. Australian lamb production is expected to be lower too, which tightens global supply and may lead to stronger prices in international markets.
B+LNZ chair Kate Acland says despite these challenges, there are signs of cautious optimism for the sheep and beef sector. She says early-season farm gate prices for sheepmeat have been higher that last spring and cattle prices remain strong.
"This, coupled with the recent reductions in interest rates, has alleviated some financial pressure," she says.
The issue of declining sheep numbers was raised at the recent agricultural climate change conference, with some delegated blaming this on the increase in productive land going into forestry.
