RaboResearch Forecasts Profitable Dairy Season Despite Rising Cost Pressures
RaboResearch senior analyst Emma Higgins expects the 2026/27 dairy season to be another profitable one.
The second to last Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event for the 2017-18 production season saw the auction’s price index down 1.1%.
Whole milk powder price index was down 1.5% to US$3231/metric tonne.
Rabobank’s dairy analyst Emma Higgins says the drop in WMP price coincides with Fonterra revising upwards their production forecast for the full season to -2% (from -3% previously) to 1.5billion kgMS.
“Weather has improved for most parts around the country and in fact total New Zealand production for the season to date (March 2018) is only trailing marginally behind last season at just -0.3%.
“More generally, New Zealand product pricing tends to wane over the coming weeks as we move into our seasonal production hiatus and sentiment trails off as the focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere.”
However, there still remains demand for fresh SMP and a late spring in the Northern Hemisphere delaying production has resulted in tighter fresh inventories.
“As such, we saw positive price support for SMP this morning, with a lift of 3.6% bringing the average SMP price just shy of the US$2000 mark.
“New Zealand product is still priced at a premium over European sourced SMP. And while demand for fresh is strong, old EU SMP stocks are seeing some clearing movement.”
Results
AMF index down 1.9%, average price US$6,032/MT
Butter index unchanged, average price US$5,647/MT
BMP index up 0.5%, average price US$1,990/MT
Ched index up 3.1%, average price US$4,024/MT
LAC index up 0.6%, average price US$616/MT
RenCas index down 10.5%, average price US$5,177/MT
SMP index up 3.6%, average price US$1,999/MT
WMP index down 1.5%, average price US$3,231/MT
A central Canterbury business which turns malting barley into a key ingredient in beer making has celebrated its 100% New Zealand-grown status with a special event.
A farm shed solution to a long-standing safety problem has captured the public’s vote in the Fieldays Innovation Awards with AWS, with Waikato dairy farmer Warren Storey’s invention The PostMate, winning the 2026 Fieldays Innovation Awards People’s Choice Award, supported by KingSt. Advertising.
OPINION: The latest update from the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) on the state of NZ's primary sector paints a positive picturee about its performance over the past 12 months.
The recently signed free trade agreement with India is an invitation to strengthen relationships between the New Zealand and Indian strong wool industries, says Wool Impact chief executive Andy Caughey.
Strengthening the voice of vegetable growers on "big ticket items" will be the immediate focus of newly formed New Zealand Vegetable Council (NZVeg), says inaugural chair Alison Stewart.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the red meat sector is doing an excellent job promoting our pasture-fed system around the globe.
OPINION: Reckless action by Greenpeace in 2024 forced Fonterra to shut down a drying plant for four hours, costing the co-op…
OPINION: The global crusade against fossil fuel is gaining momentum in some regions.