Early drought fears ease in Hawke’s Bay, but caution remains
Fears of a serious early drought in Hawke’s Bay have been allayed – for the moment at least.
NIWA's principal scientist, forecasting and media, Chris Brandolino told Rural News that weather patterns that are emerging will likely cause the early arrival of El Nino. He says NIWA is already starting to see dryness develop in parts of the North Island - including Hawke's Bay and Tairāwhiti.
Brandolino says this could see periods when for two or three days, temperatures will soar into the upper 20 degrees, then suddenly cool down again then the process starts all over again. He says this is unusual because NZ is still in the astronomical winter.
"Normally the dryness begins in November, but this year it is likely to kick in early - meaning October."
To that end, NIWA and MPI have worked together to produce a 'drought prediction tool' which is on the NIWA website. Brandolino emphasises that this tool is not a weather forecaster, but rather it predicts the weather themes and level of dryness 35 days ahead and is updated daily.
