Emissions research a black hole?
OPINION: A giant black hole is emerging within the wider agricultural industry. It has been there for some time but has mostly flown under the radar.
Farmers are still saddled with the same excessive reduction targets and inflated emissions pricing as before.
Our industry has been slow to realise that without warming-based accounting to underpin the split-gas approach, its only function will be creating a separate emissions column on a spreadsheet.
The split-gas approach dates back to 2019 and the creation of the Zero Carbon Act. The Government wanted industry support for their 10%-by- 2030 methane reduction target and in an alarmingly short-sighted negotiating strategy, DairyNZ and Fonterra obliged. Both submitted in support of the 10% target on the condition the Government include a split-gas approach to methane.
It’s the targets that drive climate policy, not the number of columns on a spreadsheet. By supporting the 10% target DairyNZ and Fonterra robbed our industry of a genuine debate on how methane should be treated at the appropriate time.
To their credit, both Federated Farmers and Beef + Lamb recognised that the proposed methane target was excessive and would see farmers forced to produce cooling. The science is unequivocal: our methane emissions must only reduce 3% by 2030 to avoid warming the climate, any further reductions will create a cooling trend.
DairyNZ’s recent media campaign crying foul over the targets suggests they have woken up to their mistake. Unfortunately, the opportunity to debate the methane target has now passed. Claims that industry leaders will negotiate reduced targets at the upcoming Climate Change Commission review in 2024 are false.
The Commission has strict criteria for reassessing the targets. Given the science on methane’s warming effect was already well established in 2019 when the dairy sector agreed to the targets – these same arguments cannot be heard again by the Commission.
Industry leaders must face facts and explain to farmers that fixing the emissions target will now require a political solution.
The National Party remains ambiguous on what they would do about the targets; agriculture spokesperson Barbara Kuriger has indicated National stands by the 10% reduction target but will continue to debate the pathways to achieve it. The Act Party has been more forthcoming, calling on the Government to ‘give farmers a fair deal when setting methane targets.’
If there is to be a fairer outcome for farmers, it will need to come after a change of government.
It is important farmers engage with these policy discussions, particularly those in the hill country. Having already signed up to the HWEN emissions tax, there are signs rural advocacy is playing down some of the more damaging aspects of the proposal.
HWEN is expecting sheep and beef production to drop by 7-8% by 2030. This significant reduction is driven by a combination of pricing livestock emissions and the ever-increasing draw of carbon farming. This plan to destock rural New Zealand is hidden under ‘existing policies’ in the HWEN report and has received almost no scrutiny by traditional advocacy.
How many productive farms will be lost? How many schools closed? How many rural service jobs gone?
The plight of our sheep and beef farmers is further compounded by their lack of genuine mitigation options and their inability to get all provable carbon sequestration included. IPCC guidelines allow our government to include a far wider range of sequestration than they have.
As the New Zealand Government works tirelessly to undermine our industry and reduce our highly efficient production, our competitors are happily filling the void. Brazil expects to see meat exports increase by 10% by 2030. Ironically this has been rewarded by the EU with an increase in their market access quota.
Meat and Livestock Australia saw the threat of an emissions tax early and pre-empted it by creating the Carbon Neutral By 2030 plan.
The Australian red meat sector has cleverly avoided a crippling tax on livestock emissions but will still get all the kudos from marketing their products as ‘carbon neutral’.
It is becoming increasingly evident our industry jumped in the wrong waka.
Steven Cranston is Groundswell NZ spokesperson on emissions
