Tightening beef market

 MLA’s 2015 cattle industry projections are that, after two years of record slaughter and live export, the market is now likely to shrink.

Better cattle prices and competition between the domestic and export markets for reduced cattle supplies are forecast, says MLA’s manager market information Ben Thomas.

“High turn-off has had a dramatic impact on the national herd: in three years [it will have declined] from a 35-year high of 29.3 million to a two-decade low of 26.5 million by the end of 2016.

“We’ve seen an enormous turnoff of cattle and the flow-on effects are likely to last for the rest of the decade. Whether there is a widespread break in the drought or not, the high slaughter of the past two years will take a toll on supplies while seasonal weather will continue to influence farmgate returns.”

Beef exports are forecast to reach 1.05 million tonnes in 2015, down 19% and driven by the expected tightening of the domestic market. However in historical terms this figure will remain high.

The US looks to remain the biggest buyer of Australian beef in volume and value terms; the EU is likely to remain Australia’s most valuable market on a per kg basis. All other beef export markets are expected to decline.