Strong production, tested demand send milk prices crashing
Strong global milk production and rebalancing of demand among key buyers has delivered one of the biggest drops in whole milk powder prices in recent years.
Futures market pricing had suggested price falls in the 4-5% range after the last disastrous auction a fortnight ago. The market was thus rightly on edge, notes Eckhold.
"Overall prices rose slightly driven by a strong performance from the 'Fats' - Anhydrous Milk Fat 4%, Cheddar 6.2%, Butter 0.8%) while the 'Powders' fell - albeit by less than feared (Whole Milk Powder -1.6%, Skim Milk Powder -1.1%)," he says.
"We didn't see much of interest in the pattern of buyers - Middle Eastern buyers were better supporters of the auction this time. Chinese demand looks stable.
"Our forecast for the 2024-25 milk price remains unchanged at $8.40 with balanced risks. Of key interest will be the impact of weak Chinese economic growth, which recent data confirms is still travelling below trend, driven by a still weak consumer. That's not great news for soft commodities."
