Strong production, tested demand send milk prices crashing
Strong global milk production and rebalancing of demand among key buyers has delivered one of the biggest drops in whole milk powder prices in recent years.
The new forecast farmgate milk price range is $6/kgMS to $7.50/kgMS, with a new mid-point of $6.75/kgMS.
Fonterra chef executive Miles Hurrell says Global Dairy Trade (GDT) prices have continued to fall since it revised its Farmgate Milk Price earlier this month, requiring the co-op to reduce its midpoint by a further 25 cents.
“GDT prices have fallen sharply since we released our opening forecast for the season in May, with the overall index down 16% over that period.
“While our wide forecast range assumed movement in GDT prices, whole milk powder prices fell 10.9% in the most recent trading event requiring us to revise our position again.
“Reduced demand from key importing regions for whole milk powder is weighing on prices. While indications are demand will start to return over the second half of FY24, we do expect the pace of demand growth to be subdued relative to initial expectations.”
Fonterra will continue to respond to market signals and adjust its forecast farmgate milk price to ensure that the impact of current prices and currency movements is transparent, says Hurrell.
“This is a challenging time for New Zealand’s dairy farmers and the co-op is doing all it can to support its farmers,” says Hurrell.
