University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
DairyNZ regional team leader Craig McBeth says a key focus for farmers should be looking at ways to keep a core group of cows milking until pasture growth recovers.
"Implementing some culling and tallying up supplements are important actions right now," says McBeth. "It's also important to manage pasture condition and not over-graze, so when it does rain, pastures are in good shape to respond."
Tactics to ease the impact on pasture include keeping pasture residuals above six clicks (1400kg DM/ha or 3cm) and maintaining a rotation length as close to 30 days as possible.
"Sixteen hour milking is one way of getting onto a longer rotation – it can be beneficial for protecting paddocks and if it rains, milk production will bounce back," says McBeth.
Reducing the grazing time can also help preserve pasture. "When cows reach the target grazing residual, take them out and stand them on a feed pad, stand-off area or a shady area with some supplement and water," says McBeth.
"The key is to have a plan and keep reviewing it, so things don't sneak up on you."
He urges farmers to communicate the plan to their on-farm staff and to ensure that they are keeping their banker informed of how the farm is tracking financially.
McBeth also encourages farmers to remain optimistic about rainfall late in the season and the importance of using different tactics to keep cows milking to exploit the late rain.
According to NIWA data, soil moisture available in Whangarei and the Waikato (Hamilton) is at 13% and the Bay of Plenty (Te Puke) is 10%. Most North Island districts need up to 60mm of rain to restore pasture growth to normal rates.
