Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
The survey last month found the number of farmers expecting the rural economy to improve in the next 12 months has fallen to 29% (down from 46% last quarter), 49% were expecting similar conditions (up from 42%) and the number expecting the rural economy to worsen rose to 16% (up from 8%).
Dairy farmers’ confidence fell to +18% -- from +50%.
Rabobank New Zealand general manager for Country Banking, Hayley Moynihan, says the survey found farmers in all sectors more pessimistic about the expectations for the rural economy than in the previous quarter, largely because of worries about the recent change in government.
“Of the farmers who thought the rural economy will worsen over the next 12 months, government policies were cited by 80% as a key reason,” says Moynihan. “With a change of government comes uncertainty about the impact of policies on NZ’s agricultural sector.
“During the election campaign, each of the three parties that now make up the government indicated they wanted to make changes to how NZ’s rural economy was operating.
“These results indicate that farmers have some concerns about what these potential interventions could mean for the performance of the rural economy.”
