Milk Glut Drags Fonterra Forecast Down to $9.20/kgMS
A milk glut around the world shows no sign of easing, putting downward pressure on farmgate milk prices for the next few months.
Rural economist Nathan Penny said he was surprised that Fonterra maintained its milk price forecast at $6/kgMS last week.
Penny says all the seven main products that ASB monitors posted falls. Overall prices now stand 42.2% lower than a year ago
SMP, BMP and casein posted the biggest falls, dropping 9.5%, 12.9% and 14.3% respectively. Meanwhile, WMP fell 4.3% and the other products recorded falls in the 5% to 6% range.
Russian import ban may be putting more downward price pressure on products with strong European supply (e.g. SMP) relative to NZ-dominated products (WMP), he says.
Higher prices for later-dated contracts still hint at support for prices later in the season, but at the expense of short-term weakness.
