BNZ lifts milk price forecast to $10.25/kgMS for 2025-26
A stronger than expected outlook for dairy has prompted one bank to lift its 2025-26 season forecast milk price by 75c to $10.25/kgMS.
Could there finally be positive news for the red meat sector after a period of challenging economic conditions?
According to the latest Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) Rural Wrap report, the answer is maybe.
The report states that beef and lamb prices have risen over the past four months, with beef up 16% and lamb up 21%.
“We say this not to suggest that prices are strong, far from it in lamb’s case, but rather to acknowledge some changing dynamics of late,” the report states. “Rising prices at this time of year is not unusual, but the gains over recent months have been a bit more than normal.”
According to the bank, part of the price gain is due to a tightening domestic supply, as evidenced by recent strength in store markets. However, there have also been pockets of price improvement on the export market.
“In NZ, lamb and cattle slaughter numbers have dropped significantly below year earlier levels, tightening local supply and putting upward pressure on prices.”
The report states that an early kill, especially for lamb, saw slaughter numbers for both lamb and cattle tracking around a third below figures for a year earlier in July.
Despite the price rises, beef and lamb find themselves in two different positions from a historical perspective.
Lamb prices are low and are currently approximately 13% below their five-year average. Meanwhile, beef prices are at record levels, about 14% above their fiveyear average.
Farmer lobby group Federated Farmers has announced it is supporting a new Member’s Bill which it says could bring clarity to New Zealand farmers and save millions in legal costs.
DairyNZ has announced the date for its upcoming Milksolids Levy vote.
Federated Farmers says climate protest group Greenpeace is manufacturing outrage and attempting to scare New Zealanders with headlines that have no basis in science.
New Zealand Food Safety (NZFS) says it is supporting importer Goodfood Group in its decision to recall Food Snob and Mon Ami brand French Brie and Camembert cheeses.
New Zealand's dairy industry is right to call out Donald Trump over the damage the additional 15% tariff the US is imposing on our exports but also imposition on lower tariffs on our competitors.
Applications are now open for the Agri Futures Scholarships, helping young Kiwis from rural backgrounds kickstart careers in agriculture and rural sports.
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