Strong production, tested demand send milk prices crashing
Strong global milk production and rebalancing of demand among key buyers has delivered one of the biggest drops in whole milk powder prices in recent years.
The final Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction for the 2023-24 season augurs well the forecast milk price for the new season.
While the banks are forecasting between $8.35 to $8.40/kgMS, Fonterra later this week, its forecast range for the season starting June 1.
Last week's GDT delivered good news: while the price index rose 3.3%, Chinese buyers returned after pulling back in the earlier May auction. Also, whole milk powder prices rose 2.9% to US$3,408/metric tonne.
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold noted that auction was "another very strong one with gains across the board".
"All categories rose and wrong-footed futures markets, which again saw a much flatter result," says Eckhold.
"Chinese buyers returned this time after pulling back in the early May auction. Overall prices are now 10 per cent or so above their long-term averages. We can certainly see upside risk building to our milk price forecast of $8.40/kgMS for the 2024/25 season."
ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown believes farmers can hope for a farmgate milk price in the top half of Fonterra's guidance range ($7.50-$8.10/kgMS) this year.
"We remain comfortable with our $8.35/kgMS forecast."
According to the most recent Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey, farmer confidence has inched higher, reaching its second highest reading in the last decade.
From 1 October, new livestock movement restrictions will be introduced in parts of Central Otago dealing with infected possums spreading bovine TB to livestock.
Phoebe Scherer, a technical manager from the Bay of Plenty, has won the 2025 Young Grower of the Year national title.
The Fencing Contractors Association of New Zealand (FCANZ) celebrated the best of the best at the 2025 Fencing Industry Awards, providing the opportunity to honour both rising talent and industry stalwarts.
Award-winning boutique cheese company, Cranky Goat Ltd has gone into voluntary liquidation.
As an independent review of the National Pest Management Plan for TB finds the goal of complete eradication by 2055 is still valide, feedback is being sought on how to finish the job.
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