Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
The dip follows two successive upticks in prices at the November 15 and December 6 auctions.
Skimmed milk powder was down 3.2% at US$3,312/t and whole milk powder (WMP) back 1.5% at US$3,589/t. Anhydrous milk fat bucked the trend, lifting 4.8% to average US$4,183/t across the three positions offered, with sales for June-August up 11.8%.
The easier market overall comes amid suggestions demand from China is waning.
Earlier this week UK-based Agrimoney reported that USDA officials in Beijing had slashed predicted WMP demand from China, by far the biggest importer, by 75,000t to 375,000t.
Higher prices had put imported WMP out of reach of smaller Chinese processors who are turning increasingly to domestic supplies, despite continued safety concerns, said the USDA.
Meanwhile Rabobank, releasing its quarterly dairy report yesterday, predicted “abundant” supply through early 2012, as the Southern Hemisphere clears a strong production season and Northern Hemisphere production continues to outpace demand.
Stocks may start to build, increasing pressure to sell, and the market may struggle to digest supply the first quarter of 2012, “bringing the prospect of a return to a modest downward trend in pricing,” said the bank.
