Dr Danny Donaghy is professor of dairy systems at Massey University and a specialist in pasture agronomy and physiology.
That's the crux of Beef+Lamb NZ's (B+LNZ) new season outlook report, which was published last week.
Chief economist Andrew Burtt says receipts from red meat exports will be about $8 billion, slightly down on 2020-21.
While lamb export receipts are forecast to increase by 2.2% to $3.6 billion on 2020-21, beef and veal export receipts are forecast to decline by 7% to $3.9 billion, driven by a decline in production and the adverse impact of the high NZ dollar on export values.
However, Burtt says the overall outlook is positive, with the fundamentals in key markets seen as solid. He says there is strong demand and tight supply, meaning prices in export markets are forecast to lift for both sheepmeat and beef.
On farm, the lamb crop this season is expected to be 22.8 million - up point 9% on last year, reflecting an increase in ewe and hogget lambing percentages. On the beef side, export production is forecast to be down by 5%.
According to the report, farmer confidence is mixed. While on-farm profitability is positive, resilience is being tested by the volatility of adverse weather events and the extent of environmental regulation.